A defence that has barely been breached
The case for Borussia Dortmund this season starts at the back. They have kept five clean sheets in the Bundesliga and have conceded the fewest goals in the division, just four, according to [1]. Across seven league games that works out at well under a goal every two matches.
The same coverage points to the goalkeeper. [2] reports that Gregor Kobel is in outstanding form, saving 82 per cent of the shots he has faced. A figure like that can flatter a defence, since a keeper in such form hides some chances conceded. It also shows he has been decisive when Dortmund have been tested.
The record is unbeaten as well as stingy. Dortmund have won five and drawn two of their Bundesliga games, and they have not lost away from home in the top flight this term. That matters this weekend, because the next league match is a trip to Munich.
Recent form: a wobble, then a recovery
The run has not been entirely smooth. Dortmund drew their two league games before the visit of Eintracht Frankfurt, a 2-2 home draw with Werder Bremen and a goalless draw at Union Berlin. In between came a 1-0 defeat at Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League. They returned to winning ways with a 1-0 home victory over Frankfurt on Matchday 7, and a 2-1 win at Sabah FK in Europe preceded that.
The pattern is of a side that is hard to beat but not always free-flowing. Two of the last four league outings produced one goal or none for Dortmund, and the Frankfurt win was by the narrowest margin. The attack has still done enough to score 12 goals in seven league matches, which gives them a goal difference of +8.
The Bremen cup tie and what it showed
Midweek brought a reminder that the defensive record is not unbreakable. Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 3-2 in the DFB Cup second round, and Marcel Sabitzer decided it with a stoppage-time free kick. According to the [3], Bremen equalised twice through Niclas Füllkrug, who scored a penalty and a close-range finish after coming off the bench.
Two goals conceded in one game is more than Dortmund have allowed in any recent stretch of league football, so the performance will not be ignored in Munich. The report also notes that Ramy Bensebaini was suspended for the tie. The input gives no information on his availability for the Klassiker, so that remains an open question rather than a confirmed absence.
The positive reading is that the team found a winner late, which is a trait that matters in tight fixtures. The cautious reading is that a side with a 2-2 draw against the same opponent earlier in October has now shown that Bremen can create chances against it.
Bayern: the league’s top attack, with absences
The opponent is the division’s best attacking team. [4] reports that Bayern top the Bundesliga on goal difference with 17 points, level with Dortmund, and have scored a league-leading 25 goals. This is therefore a meeting of the best attack and the best defence between two teams on identical points.
Bayern’s preparations come with caveats. A [2] reports that they are missing Luis Díaz, that Jamal Musiala is doubtful, and that head coach Vincent Kompany is absent, with assistant Aaron Danks deputising. These are reports ahead of the match, and the articles name no confirmed line-ups, so they should be treated as provisional.
What it means
Dortmund sit second in the Bundesliga with 17 points from seven games (W5 D2 L0, 12 goals for, four against), behind Bayern only on goal difference. Winning in Munich would put them top of the table, while a draw would keep the gap where it is.
The form says they are resilient rather than dominant. They have taken a point or more from every league game, but two of their last four league results were a draw and a single-goal win, and the 3-2 cup tie against Bremen showed that late drama is possible. Kobel’s 82 per cent save rate is a strength, though it is also something that may be hard to sustain against 25 goals’ worth of Bayern attack.
The next fixture, Bayern v Dortmund on 31 October, asks whether an unbeaten away record and the league’s best defence can hold up against the league’s most prolific attack. The site’s forecast for the match locks 24 hours before kick-off, and it will be graded publicly once the result is in.
Sources
- Bundesliga.com: Pick your dream Borussia Dortmund starting XI for Der Klassiker against Bayern Munich! bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Der Klassiker: Here’s why Borussia Dortmund can beat Bayern Munich bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Marcel Sabitzer's late free kick sends Borussia Dortmund past Werder Bremen in DFB Cup thriller bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Pick your dream Bayern Munich starting XI for Der Klassiker against Borussia Dortmund! bundesliga.com ↩
