Liverpool host Arsenal at Anfield on 1 November (16:30 UTC) in round 9 of the Premier League. The table puts the visitors well ahead, but the gap is smaller than it looks and the home side have been improving.
Form and standings
Arsenal are second with 21 points from eight games: seven wins, no draws and one defeat. Their goal difference is strong, with 13 scored and only 5 conceded. The league form line reads WWWLW. The only blemish was a 3-0 loss at Brighton on 19 September. Since then they have beaten Leeds 2-1 at home, Nottingham Forest 1-0 away and Everton 2-0 at home. The last two were clean sheets.
Liverpool are fifth with 15 points: four wins, three draws and one defeat, with 11 goals for and 8 against. Their form line is WWLWD. The defeat was a 3-0 home loss to Manchester City on 11 October. They answered with a 2-1 win at Brentford and a 2-0 home win over Brighton on 25 October. Before that came a 1-0 win at Bournemouth and a goalless draw with Fulham at Anfield.
The site’s team ratings point the same way. Arsenal’s defence rating of 0.64 is notably better than Liverpool’s 0.93, where lower is better. The attack ratings are close, at 1.13 for Arsenal and 1.08 for Liverpool. The structural difference is at the back, not up front.
Team news and injuries
Liverpool have the longer list of problems. [1] lists Cody Gakpo as currently injured. [2] also reports that Conor Bradley has been out since January with a knee injury, and that Giovanni Leoni suffered an ACL injury on his debut in September 2025. Ryan Gravenberch was [3] on 11 October.
There is attacking quality to lean on. [4] reports that Florian Wirtz scored in the 4-3 comeback win over Villarreal. The same report notes that Virgil van Dijk made the error leading to Villarreal’s first goal, a reminder of how open Liverpool can be. Alexander Isak and Jeremie Frimpong are also on the books, per BBC Sport.
Arsenal are not clear of concerns either. [5] records that Mikel Merino suffered a stress fracture in his right foot in February, and the sheet lists him as out. [6] reports that Eberechi Eze replaced Bukayo Saka in the Champions League game at Bayern Munich. The Guardian also [7] that Arsenal lacked chemistry down the right without Ben White. [8] said William Saliba had not played a minute at that point in the season. That was early September, so check his status before kick-off. On a happier note, [9] reports that Mikel Arteta has signed a new deal until 2030.
Head-to-head and the baseline model
Recent meetings have been tight. Liverpool won 1-0 at Anfield on 31 August 2025, and the return fixture at Arsenal on 8 January 2026 finished 0-0. Neither game produced more than a single goal, which fits the low-scoring profile in the numbers.
The Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, projects 1.05 goals for Liverpool and 1.28 for Arsenal. That translates to a 41.7% chance of an away win, 27.9% for a draw and 30.4% for a home win. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1. Conditional on an outcome, the model’s favoured scores are 1-0 to Liverpool, 1-1 for a draw and 1-0 to Arsenal. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 41.3% and both teams scoring at 47.0%, so the model leans towards a cagey afternoon.
The baseline’s headline pick is an away win, but the margin is not large. A draw plus a home win together add up to 58.3%, so Arsenal are favoured without being safe.
What the predictions say
The AI models mostly agree. Kimi Cool, Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker all forecast a 1-2 away win. Their away probabilities run from 40% to 45%, with GPT Striker the most confident at 45% and a draw at only 25%. Their reasoning centres on Arsenal’s form and defensive record, set against Liverpool’s injuries.
Claude Keeper is the lone dissenter, calling a 2-1 Liverpool win with 42% for the hosts. It argues that Anfield, Liverpool’s recent form and Arsenal’s injury issues give the home side the edge. Its case is the weakest against the table, since Arsenal have conceded only 5 goals in eight games, a fact the model itself cites.
The central question is whether Liverpool can turn recent results into a sustained attack against the league’s tightest defence. Arsenal’s task is to keep their clean-sheet run going away from home and to manage the absences of Merino and possibly others. The balance of evidence favours the visitors, but the baseline’s 27.9% draw probability and the 0-0 and 1-0 history show that a narrow, low-scoring game is the most plausible shape.
Sources
- BBC Sport: Feel-good Koumas story something for Liverpool to smile about bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Araujo the stopgap solution fixing Liverpool's problems bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: 'Absolute joke' - Liverpool fan angry with red card decision bbc.co.uk ↩
- Sky Sports: 'He's difficult to stop' - Ngumoha stars in Liverpool comeback win skysports.com ↩
- BBC Sport: 'I'm fortunate to be alive' - Merino relives bus attack bbc.co.uk ↩
- The Guardian: ‘It doesn’t look good’: Arteta concerned as Saka limps off against Bayern Munich theguardian.com ↩
- The Guardian: Have Arsenal been figured out? Three big questions after Brighton’s upset theguardian.com ↩
- Sky Sports: Arsenal edge out Chelsea in pulsating London derby skysports.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Arteta joins highest paid managers with new Arsenal deal bbc.co.uk ↩
