Osasuna vs. Racing Santander: New Manager Bounce for Hosts?

Match Overview

CA Osasuna will host Real Racing Club de Santander at Estadio El Sadar on October 18, 2026. Osasuna comes into this fixture in a challenging period, having recently appointed Jagoba Arrasate as their new head coach, replacing Luis Ramis ^[1]. This change comes as the team aims to secure permanence in the league, a clear objective stated by the club ^[1]. However, Osasuna faces a significant injury crisis, with Valentin Rosier, Raúl Moro, Kike Barja, Aimar Oroz, Romain Del Castillo, and Jorge Herrando all unavailable ^[2]. Herrando had been a starter in the initial games of the season before his injury ^[3]. Racing Santander, on the other hand, will have Julen Agirrezabala in goal ^[4] and Sergio Canales is expected to play ^[5]. Yassir Zabiri, on loan from Stade Rennes, has been a key player for Racing, scoring 6 goals this season ^[6] and earning a call-up to the Moroccan national team ^[7]. The away side also saw several new faces debut earlier in the season, including Aarón Martín and Jeanuel Belocian ^[8], while Pablo García also transferred to the club ^[9].

Team Form and Dynamics

Osasuna’s recent form has been concerning, with their last five league matches showing a record of one draw and four losses (LDLLL). Their most recent result was a 5-2 away loss to Real Betis Balompié. Over the season, they have accumulated 8 points from 8 games, placing them 16th in the league table, having scored 8 goals and conceded 18. Their attacking rating stands at 0.8354, while their defensive rating is 1.3755. Racing Santander’s form is slightly better, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five outings (DLLWL). They drew 2-2 at home against Valencia CF in their last match. Racing currently sits 15th in the league with 8 points from 8 games, having scored 13 goals and conceded 23. Their attacking rating is 1.0969, and their defensive rating is 1.6644. Racing’s stadium, El Sardinero, was full for their recent match against Valencia, indicating strong fan support ^[10].

Predictions and Key Factors

All models predict a home win for Osasuna, with the most likely scorelines being 2-1 or 1-0. The baseline Poisson model forecasts a 2-1 home win with a 49.0% probability for Osasuna, 20.3% for a draw, and 30.7% for Racing. This model also suggests expected goals of 2.22 for Osasuna and 1.74 for Racing. Other models, such as opus, kimi-cool, gemini-flash, gpt-striker, and deep-thinker, also lean towards an Osasuna victory, citing factors like the ‘new manager bounce’ and home advantage. Opus and kimi-cool specifically highlight Osasuna’s defensive vulnerabilities and Racing’s stronger attack, but still favor the home side due to the managerial change and home field. Kimi-cool notes that bookmaker odds for a home win (2.0, implying 50%) might undervalue the true probability given Racing’s defensive record. Gemin-flash and gpt-striker also emphasize the new coach and home advantage for Osasuna, while acknowledging their injury woes and Racing’s attacking prowess. Deep-thinker points to Osasuna’s home advantage as the slight edge in a match between two teams in poor form. The consensus points to a tightly contested match, but with Osasuna having a slight advantage due to the managerial change and playing at home.

What it means

Osasuna’s current standing at 16th in the league with 8 points from 8 games, coupled with their recent form of LDLLL, indicates a struggle for consistency. The appointment of a new coach, Jagoba Arrasate, signals a clear intent to reverse this trend and secure their position in the league. This match against Racing Santander, who are just one spot above them in 15th with an identical points tally, is crucial for Osasuna to gain momentum under their new leadership. A win would provide a much-needed boost and potentially lift them further away from the relegation zone. For Racing Santander, their form of DLLWL, while not stellar, shows a slightly more resilient performance than their opponents. Their next fixture against Osasuna presents an opportunity to create a gap between themselves and the teams at the bottom. The models’ predictions of an Osasuna home win suggest that the ‘new manager bounce’ and home advantage are expected to be significant factors, despite Osasuna’s extensive injury list and Racing’s more potent attack.

Sources

1. Marca: Arrasate: "Siento que Osasuna me necesita y que yo puedo ayudar a Osasuna" marca.com ↩
2. Marca: Betis - Osasuna: horario y dónde ver hoy por TV y 'online' el partido de LaLiga EA Sports marca.com ↩
3. Marca: Herrando: “Ser capitán de Osasuna me haría sentir orgulloso” marca.com ↩
4. Marca: Agirrezabala marca el camino para ganar al Barça: “Hay que hacer un partido prácticamente perfecto” marca.com ↩
5. Marca: Sergio Canales se abre sobre sus duros años en el Real Madrid: "No me arrepiento" marca.com ↩
6. Marca: Nadie aprovecha la ausencia de Raphinha para el Pichichi marca.com ↩
7. Marca: Zabiri se gana la llamada de una Marruecos con Brahim... y sin el 'alemán' Ebnoutalib marca.com ↩
8. Marca: Los cuatro fichajes del Racing del último día de mercado debutan ante el Rayo marca.com ↩
9. Marca: Pablo García explica sus lágrimas: "Cuando tuve que hacer la maleta se me apagaron los plomos" marca.com ↩
10. Marca: Racing de Santander - Valencia | Aguirre salta al césped marca.com ↩