Sevilla FC host CA Osasuna at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán on 26 October (20:00 UTC) in round 10 of La Liga. The hosts sit 6th with 14 points from nine games. Osasuna are 12th with 11 points. Every model on predict.game picks the home side, but the margin for error is thinner than the table suggests.
Sevilla: points in the bank, goals going the wrong way
Sevilla have won four, drawn two and lost three, scoring 14 and conceding 16. Their form line reads LDLWW, newest result first. The two wins came in September, 1-0 away at Deportivo La Coruña and 1-0 at home to Valencia. Since then they lost 3-1 at home to Barcelona, drew 3-3 at Levante on 12 October and lost 4-1 at Real Madrid on 18 October.
That is 11 goals conceded in the last three league games, and it is the main reason the models stop short of calling this a comfortable home win. The attack is producing, with seven goals across those same three matches, but the defence is leaking.
The squad has been reshaped. [1] lists Jon Guridi, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Arouna Sangante and Juan Iglesias among the signings. [2] reports an agreement with Lille for Félix Correia on loan with an option to buy. [3] confirms Youssouf Fofana arrived on loan from Milan. A lot of new faces can take time to gel, and the results so far fit that. Sangante was [4] earlier in October, so his status is worth checking before kick-off.
Osasuna: a thin squad that has just found a result
Osasuna’s season has been harder going: three wins, two draws and four defeats, with 10 goals scored and 18 conceded. Their form line is WLDLL, newest first. The 5-2 loss at Real Betis on 11 October followed a 1-1 home draw with Rayo Vallecano, a 4-0 defeat at Atlético Madrid and a 2-0 home loss to Espanyol.
The latest result was better. On 18 October they beat Real Racing Club de Santander 2-0 at home. [5] reports that Ante Budimir scored a penalty inside the first ten minutes, Asier Osambela scored after coming on as a substitute, and Iñigo Arguibide set up a goal after a long run. Arguibide’s [6] was confirmed earlier in the month.
The squad is stretched, though. Before the Betis game, [7] listed Raúl Moro, Kike Barja, Aimar Oroz, Romain Del Castillo and Jorge Herrando as unavailable. That list is two weeks old and some players may have returned, so the current picture is unclear. The models, however, all treated Osasuna’s absences as a real handicap, particularly in attack and defence.
What the models say
The Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, projects 2.03 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.17 for Osasuna. That gives probabilities of 57.2% for a home win, 21.3% for a draw and 21.5% for an away win. It estimates a 59.9% chance that both teams score and a 62.0% chance of more than 2.5 goals. Its most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The five AI models all land on the same score, with their home-win probabilities clustered close together:
- GPT Striker: 55% home, 25% draw, 20% away
- opus: 53% home, 24% draw, 23% away
- Kimi Cool: 52% home, 26% draw, 22% away
- Gemini Thunder: 50% home, 28% draw, 22% away
- DeepThinker: 50% home, 30% draw, 20% away
The spread comes down to how much weight each model gives Sevilla’s poor recent run against Osasuna’s injuries. The more cautious models, DeepThinker and Gemini Thunder, leave the most room for a draw. Head-to-head does little to separate the sides. Sevilla won 1-0 at home in November 2025, and Osasuna won 2-1 at home in April 2026.
The forecast
The case for Sevilla rests on home advantage, a stronger league position and an opponent short of players. Their attack has scored in each of their last five league games, and Osasuna have conceded 18 goals in nine matches, including four or more twice in the past six weeks.
The risks sit with Sevilla’s own defence. Osasuna scored twice at Betis and twice against Racing, and both of those results arrived with injuries already biting. A side that can score from the penalty spot, from the bench and from a long run is not without threats. A draw or a narrow away result would not be a shock, given the combined probability of roughly 45% for those outcomes in the baseline.
The consensus pick is a 2-1 home win, with the more likely route being Sevilla scoring twice and Osasuna getting one back. If Osasuna’s key attackers are still out, the visitors’ route to goals narrows, and that is the strongest argument for the home side. Check the final team news before kick-off, as the injury information here dates from mid-October.
Sources
- Marca: Monchi pone a prueba el trabajo de José Ignacio Navarro marca.com ↩
- Marca: Félix Correia hace cuentas marca.com ↩
- Marca: Sevilla: el sufrimiento va camino de desaparecer marca.com ↩
- Marca: Al Sevilla no le gustan los parones marca.com ↩
- Marca: El 'efecto Jagoba' es inmediato marca.com ↩
- Marca: Iñigo Arguibide renueva con Osasuna marca.com ↩
- Marca: Betis - Osasuna: horario y dónde ver hoy por TV y 'online' el partido de LaLiga EA Sports marca.com ↩
