Torino ride a three-match winning run
Ignazio Abate’s side come into round 9 in 8th place with 13 points from eight games: four wins, one draw and three defeats, with 13 goals scored and 11 conceded. The recent trend is clearly better than the table suggests. The form line reads WWWDL, most recent first, and the last three league games all ended in victories.
The latest was a 3-2 home win over Monza on 23 October, which Football Italia described as [1] at that point. Before that came a 3-0 away win at Parma, in which Giovanni Simeone scored twice, according to [2]. Before that, a 2-1 home win over Udinese was settled by a substitute, Sandro Kulenović, who [3]. The same report says the coach considered Simeone man of the match and took Che Adams off after an hour because of overexertion risk.
The flaw is at the back. Torino have conceded in most of their recent games, including two against Monza, and the rating in the context sheet puts their defence at 1.05 against an attack of 1.21. Scoring is not the problem, but a side that leaks goals is exposed against a team as sharp as Como.
Como arrive with the better numbers
Cesc Fàbregas’s team sit 5th with 17 points: five wins, two draws and one defeat, with 14 scored and only seven conceded. Their form line is WWDLW, and the sole loss in that stretch was a 2-0 defeat at Frosinone on 20 September. Since then they drew 0-0 at home with Roma, won 3-1 at Fiorentina and beat Sassuolo 2-0 at home on 24 October.
The Fiorentina game gave them a notable moment: Football Italia’s match report highlighted [4] for the club. Liberali was one of the summer arrivals, as was [5]. The same report notes Yan Couto pulled out of the warm-up and was replaced by Ivan Smolcic, a reminder that Fàbregas has had to adjust his team sheet at short notice.
The ratings back up the table. Como’s defensive rating is 0.75 against Torino’s 1.05, and their attack rating of 1.31 is also higher. They have scored in every game listed in their recent results except two, the draw with Roma and the loss at Frosinone. That suggests a side that creates chances regularly and concedes few.
Head-to-head and team news
The history is lopsided. Como won 5-1 at Torino on 24 November 2025 and then 6-0 at home on 24 January 2026, an 11-1 aggregate over the two meetings. Two games is a small sample and the squads and coaches have changed, but a gap that wide is hard to ignore, especially since both predecessors of this fixture were routs rather than narrow wins.
The context sheet lists four Torino players as unavailable in its most recent team news: Ricardo Rodríguez with a thigh injury, Emirhan Ilkhan with an adductor problem, Niccolò Fortini, and goalkeeper Franco Israel. The [6] confirmed the first three for the Monza game, and the match report said all four [1]. Nothing in the input says whether any has returned for Tuesday, so treat those absences as unconfirmed until the official lineups appear. In the Monza game Kian Fitz-Jim came into midfield in place of Daniel Bragança, and Ardian Ismajli [2] at Parma, so Abate has been rotating around the gaps.
What the models say
The site’s Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, expects 1.20 goals for Torino and 1.66 for Como. It gives Torino a 27.6% chance of winning, a draw 24.2% and Como 48.1%. It puts the chance of both teams scoring at 56.6% and of more than 2.5 goals at 54.5%. Its most likely single scoreline is 1-1, but the most likely score in a Como win is 0-1.
All five prediction models go for a 1-2 away win, though their confidence varies:
- Claude Keeper: 18% home, 12% draw, 70% away, the most confident call.
- Gemini Thunder and GPT Striker: each give Como 55%.
- Kimi Cool: 52% for Como, with 26% on the draw.
- DeepThinker: the most cautious, at 45% Como and 30% draw.
The common reasoning is Como’s defence, form and head-to-head record, set against Torino’s injuries. The main counterargument is that Torino are in form and playing at home. A 1-2 scoreline fits both views: Torino likely score, given their attack, but Como’s quality tells over the 90 minutes. A draw is a live outcome, and the models that rate it highest are the ones most wary of Torino’s recent momentum.
Sources
- Football Italia: Serie A | Torino 3-2 Monza: Belghali stunner spoils Juric’s return football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Parma 0-3 Torino: Simeone double spoils Gilardino’s Tardini bow football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Abate: ‘Torino won a very tough game, now we want to spark the magic with our fans’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Fiorentina 1-3 Como: Liberali celebrates first Serie A goal football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Fabregas: ‘Como must perform every three days, in Serie A and Champions League’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A official line-ups: Torino vs. Monza football-italia.net ↩
