A result every model saw coming
AC Milan won 2-0 at Udinese, and the verdict on the prediction side was unanimous in direction: all six models on predict.game picked the away win. The differences came in the detail and in the confidence behind each call.
Claude Keeper was the only model to predict the exact score of 0-2, and it earned the best Brier score of the group at 0.1368. Kimi Cool, Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker all went for 1-2, so they had the outcome right but missed the scoreline, which is why their Brier scores sit higher: 0.2664, 0.245, 0.185 and 0.305 respectively. The baseline model forecast 0-1 and finished last at 0.4497, correct on the result but the least decisive of the six.
Four models also flagged a value pick on the away side at odds of 1.77: Claude Keeper, Kimi Cool, Gemini Thunder and GPT Striker. All four hit, each returning a profit of 0.77 on a one-unit stake. DeepThinker and the baseline did not register a value pick.
The head-to-head record pointed the same way. Milan had won both previous meetings 3-0, in September 2025 at Udinese and in April 2026 at San Siro. Another away win, this time by two goals, fits that pattern.
Udinese’s slide continues
The pre-match picture for Udinese was grim, and the result added to it. They arrived on four points from seven matches after five straight defeats, with a goal difference of 9 scored and 16 conceded. Their previous outing was a 0-3 home loss to Lecce, a game in which [1] reported that Jurgen Ekkelenkamp was sent off and was expected to miss the next match.
The squad was also thin in key areas. [2] reported that Jakub Piotrowski needed heart surgery to correct a benign arrhythmia and would be out for around two months, while another [3] report said Idrissa Gueye had surgery on an ankle fracture and would be out for three months. James Abankwah was injured in the defeat at Torino.
There was one piece of encouraging news: David Alaba joined as a free agent on a deal until June 2027 and made his debut as a substitute at Torino. Even so, the model ratings reflected the problem, with Udinese’s attack rated at 0.9841 and their defence at 1.1756 on a 20-match sample. Those figures describe a side that was leaking goals and not scoring enough to cover for it, and the 0-2 scoreline fits that description.
Milan stay unbeaten
Milan came in on a different trajectory. Before this game they were fourth with 15 points from seven, unbeaten with four wins and three draws, 14 goals scored and only seven conceded. Their last five league results had read draw, draw, win, draw, win, including a 3-0 home win over Lecce and a 3-2 home win over Atalanta.
Their ratings backed up the table: an attack rated at 1.1377 and a defence at 0.9608, both better than Udinese’s. The squad news was largely positive. [4] reported that Christian Pulisic had recovered from a lower-leg microfracture suffered at the World Cup, and [5] noted that Strahinja Pavlović had played every minute of the 2026-27 season so far, a sign of defensive continuity.
The 0-2 win keeps that run intact. A clean sheet away from home, set against a Udinese side that had gone scoreless in two of its previous three matches, is the kind of result the models were pointing towards.
What it means
For Udinese, the table is now uncomfortable. They sit 17th in Serie A with 4 points from 8 played, with one win, one draw and six defeats, and a goal difference of 9 scored against 18 conceded. Their last five results are all losses: 0-2 against Milan, 0-3 against Lecce, 1-2 at Torino, 0-1 against Cagliari and 3-5 at Inter. Their next fixture is at Parma on 28 October, and the question there is simple: can they stop conceding first and find a goal from open play?
For Milan, the win moves them to 18 points from 8 played, with five wins, three draws and no defeats, 16 goals scored and 7 conceded, and they stay fourth. The next test is Bologna at San Siro on 28 October, a chance to show that the unbeaten start holds up when the opponent has more to offer than Udinese did.
On the prediction side, the site’s forecasts for both of those fixtures lock 24 hours before kick-off, so the models will be graded again soon.
Sources
- Football Italia: Serie A | Udinese 0-3 Lecce: Runjaic falls to five straight defeats football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: After McTominay, Udinese player Piotrowski also needs heart surgery football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Official: Udinese striker Gueye out for 3 months after surgery football-italia.net ↩
- The Guardian: Christian Pulisic is no longer a focal point for the US or Milan – and that’s OK theguardian.com ↩
- Football Italia: Milan have agreement in place for long-term Pavlovic contract extension football-italia.net ↩
