Match Overview
SC Paderborn 07 will host VfB Stuttgart at the Benteler-Arena on October 10, 2026. Both teams enter this Bundesliga fixture with mixed recent results. Paderborn, under coach Ralf Kettemann, sits 12th in the league with 4 points from 4 matches, recording one win, one draw, and two losses. Their last outing saw them secure a 3-1 home victory against TSG 1899 Hoffenheim [1]. Stuttgart, managed by Sebastian Hoeneß, is currently 15th with 3 points from 4 games, having won one and lost three. Their most recent match ended in a 1-0 home defeat to Borussia Dortmund. The model predictions lean towards an away win for VfB Stuttgart, with probabilities ranging from 38.9% to 66.0%, despite their recent form and injury woes.
Team News and Form
SC Paderborn 07 has seen some recent squad changes and tactical adjustments. Rayan Philippe was brought straight into the starting lineup after his signing [2], and Laurin Curda is expected to make his first Bundesliga start [3]. Stefano Marino also featured in the starting XI against Borussia Dortmund [4]. The team is actively seeking alternatives to replace the departed Mika Baur, with Gabriel Vidovic and Laurin Ulrich identified as potential options to boost their goal-scoring capabilities [5]. Santiago Castaneda has been a consistent presence, playing the full 90 minutes in all three of Paderborn’s September matches [6]. Their recent form shows a win, two losses, and a draw in their last four league matches.
VfB Stuttgart faces a more challenging situation with several key players sidelined due to injury. Tiago Tomás is out with a muscular injury, Lorenz Assignon has a shoulder injury, and Dan-Axel Zagadou is recovering from a hamstring injury [7]. Angelo Stiller was not nominated for the national team [8]. Despite these setbacks, Stuttgart has made some notable squad movements, including the permanent transfer of Bilal El Khannouss from Leicester City, with the player citing coach Sebastian Hoeneß as a key reason for his move [9]. Dženan Pejčinović has also arrived from Wolfsburg [10]. Recent starting XI inclusions for Stuttgart include Chris Führich [11], Jamie Leweling, and Ermedin Demirovic [12]. Their recent form includes three losses and one win in their last four league fixtures.
What it means
SC Paderborn 07 enters this match in 12th position with 4 points from 4 games. Their form of WLLD indicates inconsistency, with a recent win providing a morale boost after two consecutive losses. They have scored 3 goals and conceded 5, highlighting a need for improved attacking output and defensive solidity. The search for alternatives to Mika Baur underscores this attacking concern. A victory against VfB Stuttgart would significantly improve their standing and provide crucial momentum. VfB Stuttgart, currently 15th with 3 points, is in a more precarious position. Their form of LLWL shows a struggle to find consistency, with 6 goals scored and 9 conceded. Despite their superior attacking and defensive ratings (1.1804 attack, 1.0463 defence) compared to Paderborn (0.7903 attack, 0.9108 defence), their recent results have not reflected this. A win is vital for Stuttgart to climb out of the lower half of the table and alleviate pressure on coach Sebastian Hoeneß. The match is predicted to be a tight affair, with the most likely scoreline being a 1-1 draw according to the baseline model, though other models favor a 1-2 away win for Stuttgart.
Sources
- Bundesliga.com: Steffen Tigges seals victory as Paderborn stun Hoffenheim for first win of the season bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Maximilian Eggestein strike sinks Paderborn as Freiburg continue perfect start bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bundesliga and Topps launch 'Starting XI Debut Patch' for the 2026/27 season bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Felix Nmecha stunner adds gloss to Borussia Dortmund win over Paderborn bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Triebfeder Ulrich oder Techniker Vidovic: Wer findet Paderborns Weg vors Tor? kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bundesliga Rookie of the Month for September 2026: vote now! bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bundesliga Matchday 8 probable teams bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Hoeneß äußert sich nach der Nicht-Nominierung von Undav und Stiller kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bilal El Khannouss on playing in the UEFA Champions League, building on FIFA World Cup successes, and his Ballon d’Or favourites bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Can VfB Stuttgart's attack rival Borussia Dortmund's? bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bilal El Khannouss inspires VfB Stuttgart to big win over Cologne bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Ermedin Demirović hat-trick fires VfB Stuttgart to UEFA Champions League win over Viking bundesliga.com ↩
