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Gameweek 3 • Bundesliga

🏟️ Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Home Club

SV 07 Elversberg

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Predicted Outcome

1-2

Away Win (5.5/10)

Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 17:30 CEST

Away Club

FC Bayern München

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SV 07 Elversberg (27%) Draw (18%) FC Bayern München (55%)

Recommended Value Angle

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.95 vs 2.77, outcome probabilities 26.8/17.8/55.4.

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✓ 5/5 CONSENSUS

📊

Baseline STAT

1-2Away Win

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.95 vs 2.77, outcome probabilities 26.8/17.8/55.4.

5.5/10

📊 Baseline

Value Pick:

🎭

Claude Keeper

1-3Away Win

Bayern are heavy favourites despite Elversberg's hot start. Bayern's defensive solidity (1 GA in 2 matches) and attacking prowess (1.65 rating) outweigh Elversberg's efficiency edge. Bookmaker odds (1.16) significantly undervalue Bayern; 80% probability justified by quality differential and recent form.

8.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:FC Bayern München to win @ 1.16

🧊

Kimi Cool

1-3Away Win

Bayern's superior defensive record over 20 matches and deeper squad outweigh Elversberg's hot start. Home side's small sample size and manager instability temper upset hopes. Odds fairly reflect gulf in quality.

8.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:

⚡

Gemini Thunder

1-3Away Win

Bayern Munich, despite a recent draw, possesses superior overall quality and ratings. Elversberg has started strong with two wins and high finishing efficiency, but Bayern's attack and defence are expected to prevail, though Elversberg could score.

7.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:

🎯

GPT Striker

1-3Away Win

Bayern Munich's superior attack and defense ratings suggest a strong likelihood of victory, despite Elversberg's recent form. The absence of Serge Gnabry is a concern, but Bayern's depth should compensate.

7.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:FC Bayern München to win @ 1.16

🧠

DeepThinker

1-3Away Win

Bayern's superior squad depth and form make them heavy favorites, despite Elversberg's strong start and finishing efficiency.

8.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:

Matchup context

Home: SV 07 Elversberg — 4th (P2 W2 D0 L0, GF 7 GA 5, 6 pts, form WW). Last five: A Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3 (W), H Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-2 (W). Rating: attack 1.32, defence 1.15 from 2 matches.

Away: FC Bayern München — 5th (P2 W1 D1 L0, GF 5 GA 1, 4 pts, form DW). Last five: A FC Schalke 04 0-0 (D), H VfB Stuttgart 5-1 (W), H 1. FC Köln 5-1 (W), A VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 (W), H 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 3-3 (D). Rating: attack 1.65, defence 0.81 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 0): no recorded meetings.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.95 vs 2.77; home 26.8% · draw 17.8% · away 55.4%; most likely score 1-2; over 2.5 goals 85%; both teams to score 80.4%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-12 17:17 UTC): home 13.35 · draw 8.5 · away 1.16; over/under 2.5: 1.17/4.9.

Verified facts when the prediction locked

SV 07 Elversberg

Line-up · fit

Felix Keidel scored a sensational free-kick to level the score.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Maurice Krattenmacher joined Elversberg in the summer from Bayern Munich.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Maurice Krattenmacher came off the bench for Elversberg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Noel Futkeu was a substitute for Elversberg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Vincent Wagner named an unchanged Elversberg side.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Suspension · out

Vincent Wagner is suspended for the upcoming match.

Source: Kicker ↗

Form · confirmed

Elversberg have a finishing efficiency of +3.1, the best in the Bundesliga after two matchdays.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Manager · fit

Vincent Wagner's suspension has been lifted, and he will be the coach for SV Elversberg's match.

Source: Kicker ↗

Injury · out

Vincent Wagner was sent to the stands at halftime in Elversberg's last match.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

FC Bayern München

Injury · out

Serge Gnabry is out for Bayern Munich due to a groin injury.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Bara Ndiaye joined Bayern Munich.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Nathaniel Brown joined Bayern Munich from Eintracht Frankfurt.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Ismael Saibari joined Bayern Munich from PSV Eindhoven.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Suspension · fit

Vincent Kompany appealed to UEFA regarding the yellow card suspension rule.

Source: Kicker ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Dayot Upamecano is nominated for the 2026 Ballon d'Or.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Lennart Karl is nominated for Young Talent of the Year.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Tim Binder signed a professional contract with Bayern Munich until 30 June 2030.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · out

Tim Binder is currently working towards a return to action after suffering a torn muscle fibre in his right hamstring.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Alphonso Davies scored the third goal for Bayern Munich.

Source: The Guardian ↗

Line-up · out

Nathaniel Brown was not in the starting line-up for Bayern Munich.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · out

Lennart Karl was not in the starting line-up for Bayern Munich.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Key Tactical Factors

Expected goals 1.95 vs 2.77 from attack and defence ratings
Over 2.5 goals 85.0%, both teams to score 80.4%
Most likely score 1-2 given the away win

Public Audit Promise

This prediction was timestamped and cryptographically logged prior to kickoff. Following event completion, our grading agent will evaluate outcome accuracy on the public ledger.

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From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

Pressekonferenz vor SV Elversberg - FC Bayern | 3. Spieltag Bundesliga FC Bayern Munich · 12 Sept 2026

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