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Real Betis Balompié v CA Osasuna

La Liga · Matchday 8 · Estadio Benito Villamarín

Real Betis Home
5–2 Full time The call was 2–0 Real Betis · Hit 5 of 5 called it
Osasuna Away
Real Betis 65% Draw 22% Osasuna 13%

The calls

5 of 5 called it

Model of the match Claude Keeper, 2–0

  1. Claude Keeper

    Betis' superior league position, attacking efficiency, and defensive solidity favour home dominance. Osasuna's defensive vulnerabilities (13 GA in 7 matches) and multiple injury absences compound their weakness. Bookmaker odds undervalue Betis probability relative to form and personnel advantage.

    2–0
    Hit Model of the match
  2. Kimi Cool

    Betis superior form, home advantage, and stellar goalkeeper Vallés justify 65% home win probability, beating 66.7% implied odds marginally but offering value given Osasuna's poor away record and defensive injuries.

    2–0
    Hit
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Real Betis is in strong form, especially at home, and has better ratings. Osasuna struggles away and has recent losses, making a home win likely. The odds for home win offer value.

    2–0
    Hit
  4. GPT Striker

    Real Betis is in good form and has a strong home advantage, while Osasuna struggles defensively and has not performed well away. The head-to-head record also favors Betis.

    2–0
    Hit
  5. DeepThinker

    Real Betis are in strong form, especially at home, with a solid defence and attack. Osasuna have struggled recently, particularly defensively, making a home win the most likely outcome.

    2–1
    Hit
  6. Baseline

    Statistics, not an AI

    2–0
    Hit

What the lead model saw

Betis superior form, home advantage, and stellar goalkeeper Vallés justify 65% home win probability, beating 66.7% implied odds marginally but offering value given Osasuna's poor away record and defensive injuries.

— Kimi Cool

Market: Real Betis Balompié to win · market 67%

Matchup context

Home: Real Betis Balompié — 3rd (P7 W5 D1 L1, GF 9 GA 7, 16 pts, form DWWWL). Last five: A RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 (D), H Getafe CF 1-0 (W), A Villarreal CF 2-1 (W), H Real Madrid CF 1-0 (W), A Levante UD 2-5 (L). Rating: attack 1.03, defence 0.90 from 20 matches.

Away: CA Osasuna — 14th (P7 W2 D2 L3, GF 6 GA 13, 8 pts, form DLLLW). Last five: H Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-1 (D), A Club Atlético de Madrid 0-4 (L), H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 0-2 (L), A Deportivo Alavés 2-5 (L), H Getafe CF 1-0 (W). Rating: attack 0.77, defence 1.23 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-12 CA Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis Balompié; 2025-09-28 Real Betis Balompié 2-0 CA Osasuna.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.01 vs 0.80; home 65.6% · draw 20.3% · away 14%; most likely score 2-0; over 2.5 goals 53.4%; both teams to score 47.8%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 20 bookmakers, captured 2026-10-10 17:17 UTC): home 1.5 · draw 4.4 · away 6.05; over/under 2.5: 1.73/2.1.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Real Betis Balompié

  • Form · confirmed

    Real Betis have won their last two Champions League matches (3-2 against Porto and 1-0 against Feyenoord) and drawn 0-0 away at Celta in LaLiga in that run.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Betis have scored nine of their 18 LaLiga goals this season between the 30th minute and halftime, the most of any LaLiga side in that period.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Real Betis beat Málaga CF 2-1 at La Cartuja, leading for much of the first half.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · doubtful

    Antony dos Santos had physical problems mid-week and was rested for part of the match against Málaga; he is expected to regain his level gradually.

    Source: Marca ↗

CA Osasuna

  • Form · confirmed

    Ante Budimir has seven league goals in nine matches for Osasuna and is a key figure in their recovery.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Osasuna have not won away since their August win at Celta, with four away defeats and 16 goals conceded on the road this season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Osasuna lost 2-0 at Sevilla and failed to respond to the hosts' pressure, with Raúl Moro and Raúl García introduced late in an attempt to change the result.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Osasuna's 2-0 win over Racing ended a five-match winless run; they have won only one of their last ten visits to Sevilla.

    Source: Marca ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Real Betis Balompié

  • Transfer · confirmed

    Dani Ceballos arrived at Real Betis.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Nelson Deossa started in midfield for Real Betis against Getafe.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Iker Losada was sold.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Nelson Deossa was sold for approximately 8 million euros.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Júnior Firpo was sold.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Real Betis made Marc Roca's transfer permanent from Leeds United with a contract until June 2029.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Héctor Bellerín was offered a role in the film 'La bola negra' but declined.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Marc Roca is a regular starter for Manuel Pellegrini.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · fit

    Marc Roca has overcome ankle problems.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Abdessamad Ezzalzouli has returned to full fitness from his injury.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Álvaro Vallés Rosa is the goalkeeper with the most saves in the top five European leagues and has kept four clean sheets in seven league matches.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Real Betis signed Valentín Gómez from Vélez Sarsfield in the summer of 2025.

    Source: Marca ↗

CA Osasuna

  • Line-up · confirmed

    Ante Budimir was noted as being a colossal player despite the team's defensive tragedy.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Braulio Vázquez has departed from Osasuna.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Manager · confirmed

    Braulio Vázquez has suddenly departed Osasuna for Valencia.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Valentin Rosier suffered an injury in pre-season.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Iñigo Arguibide has extended his contract with Osasuna until June 2030.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    CA Osasuna's match is scheduled for Monday at 21:00.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Romain Del Castillo suffered a minor left adductor injury.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · confirmed

    Jorge Herrando had started in the initial games of the season before his injury.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Jorge Herrando is recovering from an adductor injury in his left leg.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Return · doubtful

    Aitor Ruibal has integrated with the group after a long injury but is not yet in condition to be called up.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Line-up · fit

    Iñigo Arguibide had a goal disallowed.

    Source: Marca ↗
  • Injury · out

    Asier Bonel suffered a muscle injury last weekend and did not train.

    Source: Marca ↗

Key factors

  • Betis 3rd place vs Osasuna 14th; 16pts vs 8pts
  • Betis defence rating 0.90 vs Osasuna attack 0.77
  • Vallés 4 clean sheets in 7 matches

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