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Spanish Grand Prix 2026: Race Prediction & Podium Forecast

Formula 1 World Championship · Round 14 · Madring

MCL Constructeur
P1 ANT · P2 VER · P3 NOR Full Time De voorspelling was P1 NOR · P2 ANT · P3 VER MCL · MIS 0 van 5 voorspelde het
MER Tegenstander

De voorspellingen

0 van 5 voorspelde het

Niemand heeft het voorspeld

  1. Claude Keeper

    Norris pakt pole met minimale marge op Antonelli, wat duidt op hevige concurrentie. Mercedes en McLaren domineren de kwalificatie. Verstappen derde, maar binnen bereik. Oefengegevens tonen Antonelli's consistentie en sterke lange runs. Ferrari competitief, maar nadeel door gridpositie. Leclerc's recente vorm (P1 finish) en oefensnelheid suggereren podiumkansen. Russell's penalty en Hamilton's P4 startpositie beperken hun directe vooruitzichten.

    P1 NOR · P2 ANT · P3 VER
    RAAK
  2. Kimi Cool

    Norris pakt pole met Antonelli's penalty die zijn racebedreiging beperkt. Verstappen's Red Bull heeft dit seizoen nog niet gewonnen. Leclerc van Ferrari heeft motorzorgen. Mercedes racetempo uit FP2 bevoordeelt Antonelli's herstel, maar startpositie domineert.

    P1 NOR · P2 ANT · P3 VER
    RAAK
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Norris start op pole met sterk kwalificatietempo. Antonelli zit er vlak achter, toont geweldige vorm ondanks een penalty. Verstappen is een constante bedreiging. Leclerc, Hamilton en Russell maken ook kans, met Ferrari dat goede baanspecificaties toont en Mercedes dat sterk oefentempo heeft.

    P1 NOR · P2 ANT · P3 VER
    RAAK
  4. GPT Striker

    Norris's pole position en sterk oefentempo geven hem de overhand, terwijl Antonelli's penalty hem kan hinderen, maar zijn tempo suggereert dat hij nog steeds kan meedingen. Verstappen blijft competitief ondanks start vanaf de derde plaats.

    P1 NOR · P2 ANT · P3 VER
    RAAK
  5. DeepThinker

    Norris start op pole met sterk kwalificatie- en oefentempo. Antonelli en Verstappen volgen op de voet, met Hamilton als dark horse.

    P1 NOR · P2 ANT · P3 VER
    RAAK
  6. Baseline

    Statistieken, geen AI

    P1 NOR · P2 ANT · P3 VER
    RAAK

Wat het leidende model zag

Grid-bewuste basislijn (vorm van de laatste 5 rondes vermenigvuldigd met de winstkans van de gridpositie): P1 NOR · P2 ANT · P3 VER.

Race context

Alpine F1 Team — P5, 71 pts, 0 wins. GAS (P7, P10, P10); COL (P9, P10, P9).

Aston Martin — P10, 3 pts, 0 wins. ALO (P9); STR (no recent finishes).

Audi — P8, 16 pts, 0 wins. BOR (P8, P8); HUL (P8, P9).

Cadillac F1 Team — P11, 0 pts, 0 wins. BOT (no recent finishes); PER (no recent finishes).

Ferrari — P2, 346 pts, 2 wins. HAM (P6, P4, P5, P4, P3); LEC (P5, P4, P2, P1).

Haas F1 Team — P7, 21 pts, 0 wins. BEA (no recent finishes); OCO (no recent finishes).

McLaren — P3, 285 pts, 2 wins. NOR (P4, P1, P1, P7, P4); PIA (P5, P6, P5).

Mercedes — P1, 468 pts, 9 wins. ANT (P1, P2, P3, P1); RUS (P2, P3, P7, P2).

RB F1 Team — P6, 71 pts, 0 wins. LAW (P7, P8, P6); LIN (P8, P10, P9, P7); TSU (P10).

Red Bull — P4, 201 pts, 0 wins. VER (P3, P2, P3); HAD (P6, P6, P5); LAW (P7, P8, P6).

Williams — P9, 11 pts, 0 wins. SAI (no recent finishes); ALB (no recent finishes).

Points-share baseline (f1-grid-v1): ANT 26.8% · LIN 0.9% · HAD 0.8% · HAM 9.2% · LAW 1.4%.

Startgrid

Afgeleid van kwalificatie en straffen van de wedstrijdleiding; de officiële startopstelling kan afwijken.

PosCoureurTeamQ3VerschilOpmerkingen
P1 Lando Norris NOR McLaren 91.824 —
P2 Andrea Kimi Antonelli ANT Mercedes 91.835 +0.011
P3 Max Verstappen VER Red Bull 91.964 +0.140
P4 Lewis Hamilton HAM Ferrari 92.013 +0.189
P5 Charles Leclerc LEC Ferrari 92.019 +0.195
P6 George Russell RUS Mercedes 92.149 +0.325
P7 Oscar Piastri PIA McLaren 92.294 +0.470
P8 Liam Lawson LAW Red Bull 92.316 +0.492
P9 Franco Colapinto COL Alpine F1 Team 92.903 +1.079
P10 Arvid Lindblad LIN RB F1 Team 93.041 +1.217
P11 Nico Hülkenberg HUL Audi — +0.792
P12 Gabriel Bortoleto BOR Audi — +0.957
P13 Esteban Ocon OCO Haas F1 Team — +1.236
P14 Pierre Gasly GAS Alpine F1 Team — +1.322
P15 Yuki Tsunoda TSU RB F1 Team — +1.653
P16 Alexander Albon ALB Williams — +3.101
P17 Carlos Sainz SAI Williams — +2.101
P18 Fernando Alonso ALO Aston Martin — +2.177
P19 Sergio Pérez PER Cadillac F1 Team — +2.702
P20 Valtteri Bottas BOT Cadillac F1 Team — +4.800

Het verloop van de race

Snelste ronde
George Russell · 95.587s (L49)
Safety cars
0 + 1 Virtuele safetycar
Pitstops
25 · 18 Geklasseerd
Lucht / Baan
30.8°C / 53.6°C
Strategieën van het podium
  • Andrea Kimi Antonelli medium (14) → hard (43)
  • Max Verstappen soft (14) → hard (43)
  • Lando Norris medium (15) → hard (42)

Podiumvoorspelling

VoorspellerP1P2P3Winstkans
BaselineStatistieken, geen AI NORANTVER 32.6%
Claude Keeper NORANTVER 28%
Kimi Cool NORANTVER 28%
Gemini Thunder NORANTVER 30%
GPT Striker NORANTVER 35%
DeepThinker NORANTVER 40%

Sinds de voorspelling vergrendeld werd

Geverifieerde feiten die arriveerden nadat de modellen hun keuze maakten.

Aston Martin

  • Vorm · confirmed

    Fernando Alonso was hit by Alexander Albon on the opening lap of the US Grand Prix in Austin, which according to Mike Krack cost him a considerable amount of downforce.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Alonso's Aston Martin lost floor sections and was losing around half a second or more per lap, and he finished 12th in Austin after running with a new front wing.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Upgrade · confirmed

    Honda is preparing countermeasures through software and settings to improve turbo lag control.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Marc Coma is expected to return as Fernando Alonso's co-driver for the Dakar Rally.

    Bron: Autosport ↗

Audi

  • Vorm · confirmed

    Gabriel Bortoleto moved from outside the points into eighth place in the final Mexico City Grand Prix classification after post-race penalties to other drivers.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Verwachte opstelling · confirmed

    Freddie Slater will step up to Formula 2 with Invicta next season.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Verwachte opstelling · out

    Freddie Slater will replace Gabriel Bortoleto in Free Practice 1 in Brazil.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Verwachte opstelling · confirmed

    Freddie Slater will have a second outing in Sao Paulo a week after Mexico.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗

Ferrari

  • Vorm · confirmed

    Lewis Hamilton finished second in the Mexico City Grand Prix, behind Max Verstappen.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Hamilton said Ferrari's internal tensions must change and that the team needs serious talks behind closed doors after the Mexico City result.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Ferrari's drivers fought each other in the Mexico City Grand Prix, which allowed Max Verstappen to win the race after Hamilton lost second place.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Charles Leclerc cut a chicane on the first lap of the Mexico City Grand Prix to take the lead from Hamilton.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗

Haas F1 Team

  • Transfer · confirmed

    Esteban Ocon will leave Haas at the end of 2026.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Oliver Bearman is expected to line up alongside Rafael Camara in 2027.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Transfer · confirmed

    Rafael Camara has signed a multi-year deal with Haas.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Transfer · rumour

    Leonardo Fornaroli and Rafael Camara are understood to be candidates to replace Esteban Ocon at Haas.

    Bron: Autosport ↗

McLaren

  • Schorsing · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri received a 10-second post-race penalty for the collision with Arvid Lindblad at the Mexico Grand Prix, dropping him from seventh to outside the points-scoring positions.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri qualified 12th at the Mexico Grand Prix, ending his streak of 60 consecutive Q3 appearances including sprints.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Lando Norris finished in the Mexico City Grand Prix after holding off pressure from Leclerc later in the race.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri finished in Mexico City, with his car damaged in a collision with Arvid Lindblad that caused a safety car.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗

Mercedes

  • Vorm · confirmed

    Kimi Antonelli won the Formula 1 world championship at 20 years old, according to the article.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Kimi Antonelli won the Mexico City Grand Prix, clinching his first world championship and becoming the youngest F1 world champion.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    George Russell has slipped behind Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton in the championship points table.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    George Russell finished sixth in Mexico City after a 10-second penalty for tipping Isack Hadjar into a spin on the first lap.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗

Red Bull

  • Vorm · confirmed

    Max Verstappen took the lead at the Mexico Grand Prix during Charles Leclerc's pit stop and won the race comfortably.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Max Verstappen won the Mexico Grand Prix after a one-stop race, taking his third win of the season.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Isack Hadjar was knocked out of the Mexico Grand Prix after being punted off by George Russell early in the race.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Liam Lawson finished inside the top 10 in Mexico.

    Bron: Autosport ↗

Williams

  • Vorm · confirmed

    Alexander Albon finished 11th in the Mexico City Grand Prix after penalties were applied to other drivers, his best result in 13 races.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Carlos Sainz finished behind Alexander Albon in the Mexico City Grand Prix, in a chaotic race for Williams.

    Bron: BBC Sport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Alexander Albon made contact with Fernando Alonso on the opening lap of the US Grand Prix in Austin.

    Bron: Autosport ↗
  • Vorm · confirmed

    Alexander Albon ran the United States Grand Prix with a broken front wing after the contact with Fernando Alonso on the opening lap.

    Bron: Autosport ↗

Belangrijke factoren

  • Gewogen puntenaandeel van de laatste 5 rondes
  • Startgrid: de historische winstkans van elke positie als prior
  • Favoriet NOR met 32,6%

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