Matchup context
Home: Borussia Mönchengladbach — 17th (P3 W0 D0 L3, GF 3 GA 12, 0 pts, form LLL). Last five: A SC Freiburg 0-5 (L), H SV 07 Elversberg 3-4 (L), A RB Leipzig 0-3 (L), H TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4-0 (W), A FC Augsburg 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.82, defence 1.14 from 20 matches.
Away: 1. FSV Mainz 05 — 8th (P3 W1 D1 L1, GF 6 GA 3, 4 pts, form LWD). Last five: H Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 (L), A Hamburger SV 5-0 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 0-0 (D), A 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2-0 (W), H 1. FC Union Berlin 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.02, defence 0.88 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-19 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 1. FSV Mainz 05; 2025-12-05 1. FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.31 vs 1.71; home 29.5% · draw 23.7% · away 46.8%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 58.2%; both teams to score 59.9%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 2.9 · draw 3.675 · away 2.25; over/under 2.5: 1.54/2.48.