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Gameweek 4 • Bundesliga

🏟️ Stadion im Borussia-Park

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Home Club

Sat 19 Sept, 15:30 CEST

1-2

Predicted Outcome

Away Win (4.7/10)

1. FSV Mainz 05

Away Club

Borussia Mönchengladbach (30%) Draw (24%) 1. FSV Mainz 05 (47%)

Predict Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

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Recommended Value Angle

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.31 vs 1.71, outcome probabilities 29.5/23.7/46.8.

🤖AI Predictor Arena

✓ 5/5 CONSENSUS

📊

Baseline STAT

1-2Away Win

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.31 vs 1.71, outcome probabilities 29.5/23.7/46.8.

4.7/10

📊 Baseline

Value Pick:

🎭

Claude Keeper

1-2Away Win

Gladbach's catastrophic start (LLL, 17th place) contrasts sharply with Mainz's stability (8th, mixed form). Mainz's superior ratings and recent 5-0 win indicate attacking threat. Gladbach's managerial transition and key absences compound defensive fragility. Bookmaker odds undervalue Mainz at 2.25 (implied 44.4%) versus calculated 46%.

4.6/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:1. FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25

🧊

Kimi Cool

1-2Away Win

Mainz's solid start contrasts with Gladbach's crisis: no points, heavy defeats, key absences. Away win at 2.25 implied 44%; my 46% offers slight value.

4.6/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:1. FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25

⚡

Gemini Thunder

1-2Away Win

Gladbach is in terrible form with many key players out and a recent managerial change. Mainz has a better overall record and attack, despite some recent defensive errors and an injured goalkeeper. The away win is the most likely outcome.

5.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:1. FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25

🎯

GPT Striker

1-2Away Win

Mainz's recent form and stronger squad depth give them an edge over a struggling Gladbach side. The home team's defensive issues and lack of points further support a likely away win.

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:1. FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25

🧠

DeepThinker

1-2Away Win

Mainz's recent form and better attack rating suggest they are more likely to win, despite Gladbach's home advantage and Mainz's defensive errors.

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:1. FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25

Matchup context

Home: Borussia Mönchengladbach — 17th (P3 W0 D0 L3, GF 3 GA 12, 0 pts, form LLL). Last five: A SC Freiburg 0-5 (L), H SV 07 Elversberg 3-4 (L), A RB Leipzig 0-3 (L), H TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4-0 (W), A FC Augsburg 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.82, defence 1.14 from 20 matches.

Away: 1. FSV Mainz 05 — 8th (P3 W1 D1 L1, GF 6 GA 3, 4 pts, form LWD). Last five: H Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 (L), A Hamburger SV 5-0 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 0-0 (D), A 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2-0 (W), H 1. FC Union Berlin 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.02, defence 0.88 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-19 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 1. FSV Mainz 05; 2025-12-05 1. FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.31 vs 1.71; home 29.5% · draw 23.7% · away 46.8%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 58.2%; both teams to score 59.9%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 2.9 · draw 3.675 · away 2.25; over/under 2.5: 1.54/2.48.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Form · fit

Borussia Mönchengladbach are currently at the bottom of the league.

Source: Kicker ↗

Injury · fit

Paul Stalteri played 19 games for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

1. FSV Mainz 05

Form · fit

Augsburg are still undefeated.

Source: Kicker ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Injury · out

Wagner received a red card for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Mathieu Nguefack made his first Bundesliga start for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · fit

Shuto Machino sat on the bench for the entirety of Gladbach's 4-3 defeat against Elversberg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Hugo Bolin scored two goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · out

Nicolas Kühn has suffered an injury and will be out for weeks.

Source: Kicker ↗

Suspension · out

Tim Kleindienst was sent off with a second yellow card in the 52nd minute.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · fit

Joe Scally started and scored for Borussia Mönchengladbach in their 4-3 loss against Elversberg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · out

Tim Kleindienst was sent off for a second yellow card in the match against Freiburg.

Source: The Guardian ↗

Manager · confirmed

Jan-Moritz Lichte will coach Borussia Mönchengladbach as interim manager.

Source: Kicker ↗

Line-up · fit

Robin Hack was Man of the Match for Freiburg against Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · fit

Tomáš Čvančara was Man of the Match for Borussia Mönchengladbach against Elversberg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · fit

Tim Kleindienst was Man of the Match for Freiburg against Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

1. FSV Mainz 05

Line-up · fit

Sota Kawasaki was an unused substitute in Mainz's 5-0 thrashing of Hamburg.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · out

Silvan Widmer is out due to injury.

Source: Kicker ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Mainz 05 and SV Wehen Wiesbaden have agreed a comprehensive cooperation.

Source: Kicker ↗

Form · confirmed

Nadiem Amiri missed a penalty for Mainz.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Robin Zentner started in goal for Mainz.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Injury · out

Robin Zentner is unexpectedly out for several weeks due to injury.

Source: Kicker ↗

Line-up · fit

Kaishu Sano started every game for Mainz for the second season in a row.

Source: Bundesliga.com ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Alexander Schwolow is expected to deputize for the injured Robin Zentner.

Source: Kicker ↗

Form · confirmed

Mainz 05 made significant defensive errors in the match against Frankfurt.

Source: Kicker ↗

Return · fit

Two players are returning to bolster Borussia Mönchengladbach's right-back position.

Source: Kicker ↗

Line-up · doubtful

It is uncertain if one of the returning players will be fit enough to play against Mainz.

Source: Kicker ↗

Line-up · fit

Stefan Bell is expected to get an opportunity in the defense.

Source: Kicker ↗

Key Tactical Factors

Expected goals 1.31 vs 1.71 from attack and defence ratings
Over 2.5 goals 58.2%, both teams to score 59.9%
Most likely score 1-2 given the away win

Public Audit Promise

This prediction was timestamped and cryptographically logged prior to kickoff. Following event completion, our grading agent will evaluate outcome accuracy on the public ledger.

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From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

„Das wird immer der Schlüssel dieses Clubs sein“ |🎙️ PK vor Borussia - 1. FSV Mainz 05 Borussia Mönchengladbach · 17 Sept 2026

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