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Gameweek 4 • Bundesliga

🏟️ Stadion im Borussia-Park

Borussia Mönchengladbach

主队

9月19日周六 GMT+2 15:30

1-2

预测赛果

Away Win (4.7/10)

1. FSV Mainz 05

客队

Borussia Mönchengladbach (30%) 平局 (24%) 1. FSV Mainz 05 (47%)

预测 Borussia Mönchengladbach 对 1. FSV Mainz 05

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推荐价值投注

基于过往赛果的泊松分布基准：预期进球 1.31 对 1.71，赛果概率 29.5%/23.7%/46.8%。

🤖AI专家预测擂台

✓ 5/5 共识

📊

Baseline STAT

1-2客胜

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.31 vs 1.71, outcome probabilities 29.5/23.7/46.8.

4.7/10

📊 基准模型

价值推介:

🎭

Claude Keeper

1-2客胜

门兴格拉德巴赫灾难性的开局（三连败，排名第17）与美因茨的稳定性（排名第8，状态起伏）形成鲜明对比。美因茨更强的评分和最近的5-0大胜表明其进攻威胁。门兴格拉德巴赫的教练更迭和关键球员缺席加剧了防守的脆弱性。博彩公司赔率低估了美因茨，赔率为2.25（隐含概率44.4%），而计算概率为46%。

4.6/10

🤖 LLM

价值推介:1. FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25

🧊

Kimi Cool

1-2客胜

美因茨开局稳健，而门兴格拉德巴赫则深陷危机：零积分，惨败，关键球员缺席。客胜赔率2.25，隐含概率44%；我的计算概率为46%，略有价值。

4.6/10

🤖 LLM

价值推介:1. FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25

⚡

Gemini Thunder

1-2客胜

门兴格拉德巴赫状态糟糕，多名关键球员缺阵，近期更换了主教练。美因茨整体战绩和进攻更好，尽管近期出现了一些防守失误和门将受伤。客胜是最有可能的赛果。

5.0/10

🤖 LLM

价值推介:1. FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25

🎯

GPT Striker

1-2客胜

美因茨近期的状态和更强的阵容深度，让他们在面对挣扎中的门兴格拉德巴赫时占有优势。主队防守问题和缺乏积分，进一步支持了客胜的可能性。

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

价值推介:1. FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25

🧠

DeepThinker

1-2客胜

美因茨近期的状态和更好的进攻评分表明他们更有可能获胜，尽管门兴格拉德巴赫拥有主场优势且美因茨存在防守失误。

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

价值推介:1. FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25

Matchup context

Home: Borussia Mönchengladbach — 17th (P3 W0 D0 L3, GF 3 GA 12, 0 pts, form LLL). Last five: A SC Freiburg 0-5 (L), H SV 07 Elversberg 3-4 (L), A RB Leipzig 0-3 (L), H TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 4-0 (W), A FC Augsburg 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.82, defence 1.14 from 20 matches.

Away: 1. FSV Mainz 05 — 8th (P3 W1 D1 L1, GF 6 GA 3, 4 pts, form LWD). Last five: H Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 (L), A Hamburger SV 5-0 (W), H SC Paderborn 07 0-0 (D), A 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2-0 (W), H 1. FC Union Berlin 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 1.02, defence 0.88 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-04-19 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 1. FSV Mainz 05; 2025-12-05 1. FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.31 vs 1.71; home 29.5% · draw 23.7% · away 46.8%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 58.2%; both teams to score 59.9%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 24 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 2.9 · draw 3.675 · away 2.25; over/under 2.5: 1.54/2.48.

自预测锁定以来

模型做出预测后验证的事实。

Borussia Mönchengladbach

状态 · fit

Borussia Mönchengladbach are currently at the bottom of the league.

来源: Kicker ↗

伤病 · fit

Paul Stalteri played 19 games for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

1. FSV Mainz 05

状态 · fit

Augsburg are still undefeated.

来源: Kicker ↗

预测锁定时的已核实事实

Borussia Mönchengladbach

伤病 · out

Wagner received a red card for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Mathieu Nguefack made his first Bundesliga start for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

伤病 · fit

Shuto Machino sat on the bench for the entirety of Gladbach's 4-3 defeat against Elversberg.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Hugo Bolin scored two goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

伤病 · out

Nicolas Kühn has suffered an injury and will be out for weeks.

来源: Kicker ↗

停赛 · out

Tim Kleindienst was sent off with a second yellow card in the 52nd minute.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

阵容 · fit

Joe Scally started and scored for Borussia Mönchengladbach in their 4-3 loss against Elversberg.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

伤病 · out

Tim Kleindienst was sent off for a second yellow card in the match against Freiburg.

来源: The Guardian ↗

主帅 · confirmed

Jan-Moritz Lichte will coach Borussia Mönchengladbach as interim manager.

来源: Kicker ↗

阵容 · fit

Robin Hack was Man of the Match for Freiburg against Borussia Mönchengladbach.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

阵容 · fit

Tomáš Čvančara was Man of the Match for Borussia Mönchengladbach against Elversberg.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

阵容 · fit

Tim Kleindienst was Man of the Match for Freiburg against Borussia Mönchengladbach.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

1. FSV Mainz 05

阵容 · fit

Sota Kawasaki was an unused substitute in Mainz's 5-0 thrashing of Hamburg.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

伤病 · out

Silvan Widmer is out due to injury.

来源: Kicker ↗

转会 · confirmed

Mainz 05 and SV Wehen Wiesbaden have agreed a comprehensive cooperation.

来源: Kicker ↗

状态 · confirmed

Nadiem Amiri missed a penalty for Mainz.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Robin Zentner started in goal for Mainz.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

伤病 · out

Robin Zentner is unexpectedly out for several weeks due to injury.

来源: Kicker ↗

阵容 · fit

Kaishu Sano started every game for Mainz for the second season in a row.

来源: Bundesliga.com ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Alexander Schwolow is expected to deputize for the injured Robin Zentner.

来源: Kicker ↗

状态 · confirmed

Mainz 05 made significant defensive errors in the match against Frankfurt.

来源: Kicker ↗

复出 · fit

Two players are returning to bolster Borussia Mönchengladbach's right-back position.

来源: Kicker ↗

阵容 · doubtful

It is uncertain if one of the returning players will be fit enough to play against Mainz.

来源: Kicker ↗

阵容 · fit

Stefan Bell is expected to get an opportunity in the defense.

来源: Kicker ↗

关键战术因素

根据攻防评分，预期进球 1.31 对 1.71
大球2.5个进球 58.2%，双方进球 59.9%
考虑到客胜，最有可能的比分是1-2

公开审计承诺

本预测在开赛前已通过时间戳加密记录。赛后，审计代理将在公开账本上评估预测准确性。

查看历史战绩 →

来自俱乐部

比赛期间的官方俱乐部视频。

„Das wird immer der Schlüssel dieses Clubs sein“ |🎙️ PK vor Borussia - 1. FSV Mainz 05 Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2026年9月17日

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