Matchup context
Home: Athletic Club — 9th (P5 W2 D1 L2, GF 7 GA 6, 7 pts, form DWWLL). Last five: H Elche CF 1-1 (D), H Club Atlético de Madrid 3-0 (W), A RC Celta de Vigo 2-0 (W), A FC Barcelona 0-2 (L), H Sevilla FC 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.96, defence 1.08 from 20 matches.
Away: Deportivo Alavés — 6th (P6 W3 D1 L2, GF 11 GA 6, 10 pts, form LLWWD). Last five: H Valencia CF 0-1 (L), A Real Racing Club de Santander 1-2 (L), H CA Osasuna 5-2 (W), H Villarreal CF 1-0 (W), A Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 1.05 from 20 matches.
Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-02 Deportivo Alavés 2-4 Athletic Club; 2025-09-13 Athletic Club 0-1 Deportivo Alavés.
Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.60 vs 1.40; home 42.4% · draw 24.2% · away 33.5%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 57.7%; both teams to score 60.2%.
Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 1.64 · draw 3.95 · away 5.4; over/under 2.5: 1.92/1.9.