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Gameweek 7 • La Liga

🏟️ San Mamés

Athletic Club

主队

9月19日周六 GMT+2 16:15

0-0

全场结束

❌ MISS AI 推荐: 2-1

Deportivo Alavés

客队

Athletic Club (42%) 平局 (24%) Deportivo Alavés (34%)

市场预测

失败：[moonshotai/kimi-k2-0905] 答案在 2500 个标记处被截断

✗ 无人命中

命中

0/5

🤖AI专家预测擂台

命中 0/5

📊

Baseline STAT

2-1主胜❌ MISSED

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 1.60 vs 1.40, outcome probabilities 42.4/24.2/33.5.

4.2/10

📊 基准模型

市场预测:

🎭

Claude Keeper

2-1主胜❌ MISSED

Athletic Club 作为主队，近期状态更好且进攻威胁更大，因此受到青睐。Alavés 的防守伤病（Rodríguez、Mañas、Garcés）削弱了他们的结构。历史交锋记录支持 Athletic。博彩公司赔率 (1.64) 低估了主队获胜的概率，考虑到状态差异和伤病情况。

5.8/10

🤖 LLM

市场预测:Athletic Club to win · market 61%

🧊

Kimi Cool

—未作答

failed: [moonshotai/kimi-k2-0905] answer truncated at 2500 tokens

0.0/10

🤖 LLM

市场预测:

⚡

Gemini Thunder

2-1主胜❌ MISSED

Athletic Club 主场战绩强劲，攻防评分更高。Alavés 在最近的两个客场比赛中失利，并且有多名球员受伤。尽管近期有伤病，主队仍被看好。

5.0/10

🤖 LLM

市场预测:

🎯

GPT Striker

2-1主胜❌ MISSED

Athletic Club 主场战绩强劲，近期对阵 Deportivo Alavés 战绩出色，而 Deportivo Alavés 则饱受伤病和状态困扰。这使得主队占有优势。

5.5/10

🤖 LLM

市场预测:Athletic Club to win · market 61%

🧠

DeepThinker

2-1主胜❌ MISSED

Athletic Club 主场表现强劲，近期取得连胜，而 Alavés 则有防守伤病。历史交锋记录对 Athletic Club 有利，并且在 San Mamés 的主场优势非常显著。

5.5/10

🤖 LLM

市场预测:Athletic Club to win · market 61%

Matchup context

Home: Athletic Club — 9th (P5 W2 D1 L2, GF 7 GA 6, 7 pts, form DWWLL). Last five: H Elche CF 1-1 (D), H Club Atlético de Madrid 3-0 (W), A RC Celta de Vigo 2-0 (W), A FC Barcelona 0-2 (L), H Sevilla FC 1-3 (L). Rating: attack 0.96, defence 1.08 from 20 matches.

Away: Deportivo Alavés — 6th (P6 W3 D1 L2, GF 11 GA 6, 10 pts, form LLWWD). Last five: H Valencia CF 0-1 (L), A Real Racing Club de Santander 1-2 (L), H CA Osasuna 5-2 (W), H Villarreal CF 1-0 (W), A Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 1.12, defence 1.05 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-05-02 Deportivo Alavés 2-4 Athletic Club; 2025-09-13 Athletic Club 0-1 Deportivo Alavés.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 1.60 vs 1.40; home 42.4% · draw 24.2% · away 33.5%; most likely score 1-1; over 2.5 goals 57.7%; both teams to score 60.2%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-18 11:17 UTC): home 1.64 · draw 3.95 · away 5.4; over/under 2.5: 1.92/1.9.

自预测锁定以来

模型做出预测后验证的事实。

Athletic Club

状态 · confirmed

Iñaki Williams complained about Getafe CF's style of play after a match.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Unai Simón played in goal for Spain in the 2026 World Cup.

来源: BBC Sport ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Nico Williams assisted the winning goal for Ferran Torres in the 2026 World Cup final.

来源: BBC Sport ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Aymeric Laporte was a key cornerstone of Spain's defence in the 2026 World Cup, which conceded just one goal in eight matches.

来源: BBC Sport ↗

Deportivo Alavés

状态 · confirmed

Alavés had a strong start to the season before Mikel Rodríguez's injury.

来源: Marca ↗

伤病 · out

Mikel Rodríguez is injured.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Pablo Ibáñez started on the bench for Alavés against Athletic Club.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Antonio Blanco started on the bench for Alavés against Athletic Club.

来源: Marca ↗

预测锁定时的已核实事实

Athletic Club

阵容 · confirmed

Robert Navarro scored after an assist from Iñaki Williams.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Nico Williams returned to scoring in the league.

来源: Marca ↗

主帅 · confirmed

Edin Terzić is satisfied with his current role at Athletic Club.

来源: Marca ↗

伤病 · out

Vivian is out due to injury for Athletic Club.

来源: Marca ↗

伤病 · out

Guruzeta is out due to injury for Athletic Club.

来源: Marca ↗

停赛 · out

The match between Levante UD and Athletic Club has been suspended.

来源: Marca ↗

转会 · confirmed

Maroan joined Athletic Club in the winter transfer market of 2025 from Alavés for approximately 4 million euros.

来源: Marca ↗

状态 · fit

Álex Padilla has had limited playing time this season.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · out

Unai Simón will not be available for the Euskal Herria Kopa final.

来源: Marca ↗

复出 · fit

Álex Padilla has been called up to the Mexico national team.

来源: Marca ↗

复出 · fit

Álvaro Djaló has been called up to the Guinea-Bissau national team.

来源: Marca ↗

状态 · fit

Álvaro Djaló has only played 9 minutes this season.

来源: Marca ↗

Deportivo Alavés

伤病 · out

Toni Martínez was out due to a soleus injury.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Deportivo Alavés has prioritized keeping key players like Blanco, Toni Martínez, Boyé, and Sivera to maintain squad stability.

来源: Marca ↗

状态 · fit

Ville Koski scored for Deportivo Alavés in the first half.

来源: Marca ↗

伤病 · out

Mikel Rodríguez is out injured for Deportivo Alavés.

来源: Marca ↗

伤病 · out

Aitor Mañas is out injured for Deportivo Alavés.

来源: Marca ↗

伤病 · out

Facundo Garcés is out injured for Deportivo Alavés.

来源: Marca ↗

主帅 · confirmed

Terzic is debuting as a coach in a derby match.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Aitor Mañas is expected to be important for Deportivo Alavés' goals.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · fit

Lucas Boyé started the match for Deportivo Alavés.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · fit

Mariano Díaz started the match for Deportivo Alavés.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · fit

Nicolás Valentini was brought on due to a defensive problem and was uncomfortable, making an error for the second goal.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · fit

Toni Martínez came on in the second half for Deportivo Alavés.

来源: Marca ↗

关键战术因素

Expected goals 1.60 vs 1.40 from attack and defence ratings
Over 2.5 goals 57.7%, both teams to score 60.2%
Most likely score 2-1 given the home win

✅ 预测已审核

最终比分： 0-0. 我们的AI预测为 2-1 (HOME WIN). 结果：错误 ❌

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