Gameweek 5 • La Liga
🏟️ San Mamés
1-1
全场结束
❌ MISS AI 推荐: 2-1

Elche CF

客队
Athletic Club (58%) 平局 (21%) Elche CF (21%)
市场预测

基于过往战绩的泊松基线:预期进球 2.10 对比 1.19,赛果概率 58.4%/20.7%/20.9%。

✗ 无人命中
命中
0/5

🤖AI专家预测擂台

命中 0/5
📊
Baseline STAT
2-1主胜❌ MISSED

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 2.10 vs 1.19, outcome probabilities 58.4/20.7/20.9.

5.8/10
📊 基准模型
市场预测:
🎭
Claude Keeper
2-0主胜❌ MISSED

毕尔巴鄂竞技近期状态回升(3-0战胜马德里竞技)以及更强的防守数据,对阵状态不佳的埃尔切(排名第19,净胜球-7)的主队非常有利。博彩公司赔率(1.42)低估了毕尔巴鄂竞技的获胜概率,考虑到状态差距和交锋优势。

7.2/10
🤖 LLM
市场预测:Athletic Club to win · market 70%
🧊
Kimi Cool
2-0主胜❌ MISSED

毕尔巴鄂竞技的势头、主场优势以及更强的攻防评分,对阵状态不佳的埃尔切,主胜可能性很高。博彩公司隐含概率70%接近合理;考虑到状态差距,主胜有轻微价值。

6.8/10
🤖 LLM
市场预测:Athletic Club to win · market 70%
⚡
Gemini Thunder
2-0主胜❌ MISSED

毕尔巴鄂竞技状态强劲,尤其是在主场,并且拥有更强的进攻和防守。相反,埃尔切则处于困境,尤其是在防守方面,并且客场战绩糟糕。毕尔巴鄂竞技关键球员的回归进一步巩固了他们的优势。

6.5/10
🤖 LLM
市场预测:Athletic Club to win · market 70%
🎯
GPT Striker
2-1主胜❌ MISSED

毕尔巴鄂竞技状态更好并拥有主场优势,而埃尔切则在防守方面挣扎。概率反映了毕尔巴鄂竞技根据近期表现和交锋结果获胜的可能性。

7.0/10
🤖 LLM
市场预测:Athletic Club to win · market 70%
🧠
DeepThinker
2-1主胜❌ MISSED

毕尔巴鄂竞技近期状态强劲,取得两连胜,而埃尔切则在防守方面挣扎。交锋记录对毕尔巴鄂竞技有利,使其成为可能的获胜者。

6.5/10
🤖 LLM
市场预测:

Matchup context

Home: Athletic Club — 10th (P4 W2 D0 L2, GF 6 GA 5, 6 pts, form WWLL). Last five: H Club Atlético de Madrid 3-0 (W), A RC Celta de Vigo 2-0 (W), A FC Barcelona 0-2 (L), H Sevilla FC 1-3 (L), A Real Madrid CF 2-4 (L). Rating: attack 1.02, defence 1.11 from 20 matches.

Away: Elche CF — 19th (P4 W0 D1 L3, GF 5 GA 12, 1 pts, form LLLD). Last five: H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L), A Real Racing Club de Santander 2-3 (L), H FC Barcelona 0-5 (L), A RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 (D), A Girona FC 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 0.94, defence 1.30 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-20 Athletic Club 2-1 Elche CF; 2025-10-19 Elche CF 0-0 Athletic Club.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.10 vs 1.19; home 58.4% · draw 20.7% · away 20.9%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 63.9%; both teams to score 61%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 17:17 UTC): home 1.42 · draw 4.9 · away 7.5; over/under 2.5: 1.67/2.17.

自预测锁定以来

模型做出预测后验证的事实。

Athletic Club
状态 · confirmed

Iñaki Williams complained about Getafe CF's style of play after a match.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · confirmed

Unai Simón played in goal for Spain in the 2026 World Cup.

来源: BBC Sport ↗
阵容 · confirmed

Nico Williams assisted the winning goal for Ferran Torres in the 2026 World Cup final.

来源: BBC Sport ↗
阵容 · confirmed

Aymeric Laporte was a key cornerstone of Spain's defence in the 2026 World Cup, which conceded just one goal in eight matches.

来源: BBC Sport ↗
Elche CF
状态 · out

Ali Houary has seen his participation decrease and has been left out of the last three matchday squads.

来源: Marca ↗
转会 · confirmed

Ali Houary's release clause has been raised to over 15 million euros.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · confirmed

Ali Houary started in the first three league matches of the season.

来源: Marca ↗
状态 · fit

Elche CF's planning was conditioned by budget limitations, leading to late market closures.

来源: Marca ↗

预测锁定时的已核实事实

Athletic Club
阵容 · confirmed

Robert Navarro scored after an assist from Iñaki Williams.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · confirmed

Nico Williams returned to scoring in the league.

来源: Marca ↗
状态 · confirmed

Oihan Sancet scored a goal in the match against Atlético Madrid.

来源: Marca ↗
状态 · fit

Robert Navarro scored a goal in the 48th minute for Athletic Club in their 3-0 victory over Atlético de Madrid.

来源: Marca ↗
复出 · fit

Iñaki Williams has retired from international duty with Ghana.

来源: Marca ↗
主帅 · confirmed

Edin Terzić is satisfied with his current role at Athletic Club.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · fit

Oihan Sancet is back in the Athletic Club squad and is expected to play a significant role.

来源: Marca ↗
伤病 · out

Daniel Vivian is expected to return in approximately 14 days.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · fit

Iñaki Williams is capable of playing as a winger or a second striker.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · doubtful

Gorka Guruzeta did not participate in training at the same pace as his teammates.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · confirmed

Unai Simón is considered a potential candidate for the best goalkeeper in the world.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · fit

Álvaro Djaló is expected to be called up for the match against Elche.

来源: Marca ↗
Elche CF
状态 · fit

Fer Niño scored in Elche's losses against Racing de Santander and Real Sociedad.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · confirmed

Matías Dituro is confirmed to start in goal for Elche.

来源: Marca ↗
主帅 · confirmed

Martín Anselmi is the current head coach of Elche.

来源: Marca ↗
状态 · fit

Real Sociedad is in good condition after a productive training week following their win against Elche.

来源: Marca ↗
复出 · fit

Yago Santiago is in the readaptation phase and his incorporation with the group is imminent.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · confirmed

Fer Niño is expected to be a key offensive player for Elche.

来源: Marca ↗
状态 · fit

Matías Dituro made a significant save from Luka Sučić in the match against Real Sociedad.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · fit

Petar Sucic has the ability to change a game and is being encouraged to do so more often.

来源: Marca ↗
伤病 · fit

Thomas Lemar had a hamstring overload this week, but has been training with the group.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · fit

Federico Redondo has taken a step forward and is expected to contribute significantly.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · fit

Thomas Lemar showed his hierarchy.

来源: Marca ↗
阵容 · fit

Abiel Osorio showed promising details in his debut and is expected to contribute offensively for Elche.

来源: Marca ↗

关键战术因素

  • 根据攻防评分,预期进球 2.10 对比 1.19
  • 大2.5球 63.9%,双方均进球 61.0%
  • 考虑到主胜,最可能比分 2-1

✅ 预测已审核

最终比分: 1-1. 我们的AI预测为 2-1 (HOME WIN). 结果: 错误 ❌

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