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Football Predictions

Gameweek 5 • La Liga

🏟️ San Mamés

Athletic Club

Home Club

Sat 12 Sept, 18:30 CEST

1-1

Full Time

❌ MISS AI Picked: 2-1

Elche CF

Away Club

Athletic Club (58%) Draw (21%) Elche CF (21%)

Market call

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 2.10 vs 1.19, outcome probabilities 58.4/20.7/20.9.

✗ Nobody called it

Called it

0/5

🤖AI Predictor Arena

Called it 0/5

📊

Baseline STAT

2-1Home Win❌ MISSED

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 2.10 vs 1.19, outcome probabilities 58.4/20.7/20.9.

5.8/10

📊 Baseline

Market call:

🎭

Claude Keeper

2-0Home Win❌ MISSED

Athletic Club's recent resurgence (3-0 win vs Atlético Madrid) and superior defensive metrics heavily favour the home side against struggling Elche (19th place, -7 goal difference). Bookmaker odds (1.42) undervalue Athletic's probability given the form disparity and head-to-head advantage.

7.2/10

🤖 LLM

Market call:Athletic Club to win · market 70%

🧊

Kimi Cool

2-0Home Win❌ MISSED

Athletic's momentum, home advantage and superior attack/defence ratings against a struggling Elche side make home win highly probable. Bookmaker implied probability 70% is close to fair; slight value on home given form gap.

6.8/10

🤖 LLM

Market call:Athletic Club to win · market 70%

⚡

Gemini Thunder

2-0Home Win❌ MISSED

Athletic Club is in strong form, especially at home, and boasts a superior attack and defence. Elche, conversely, is struggling, particularly defensively, and has a poor away record. The return of key players for Athletic Club further strengthens their position.

6.5/10

🤖 LLM

Market call:Athletic Club to win · market 70%

🎯

GPT Striker

2-1Home Win❌ MISSED

Athletic Club has shown better form and has home advantage, while Elche struggles defensively. The probabilities reflect Athletic Club's likelihood of winning based on recent performances and head-to-head results.

7.0/10

🤖 LLM

Market call:Athletic Club to win · market 70%

🧠

DeepThinker

2-1Home Win❌ MISSED

Athletic Club has shown strong recent form with two consecutive wins, while Elche CF struggles defensively. Head-to-head record favors Athletic Club, making them the likely winners.

6.5/10

🤖 LLM

Market call:

Matchup context

Home: Athletic Club — 10th (P4 W2 D0 L2, GF 6 GA 5, 6 pts, form WWLL). Last five: H Club Atlético de Madrid 3-0 (W), A RC Celta de Vigo 2-0 (W), A FC Barcelona 0-2 (L), H Sevilla FC 1-3 (L), A Real Madrid CF 2-4 (L). Rating: attack 1.02, defence 1.11 from 20 matches.

Away: Elche CF — 19th (P4 W0 D1 L3, GF 5 GA 12, 1 pts, form LLLD). Last five: H Real Sociedad de Fútbol 2-3 (L), A Real Racing Club de Santander 2-3 (L), H FC Barcelona 0-5 (L), A RC Deportivo La Coruña 1-1 (D), A Girona FC 1-1 (D). Rating: attack 0.94, defence 1.30 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-02-20 Athletic Club 2-1 Elche CF; 2025-10-19 Elche CF 0-0 Athletic Club.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.10 vs 1.19; home 58.4% · draw 20.7% · away 20.9%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 63.9%; both teams to score 61%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 21 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-11 17:17 UTC): home 1.42 · draw 4.9 · away 7.5; over/under 2.5: 1.67/2.17.

Since the forecast locked

Verified facts that arrived after the models made their call.

Athletic Club

Form · confirmed

Iñaki Williams complained about Getafe CF's style of play after a match.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Unai Simón played in goal for Spain in the 2026 World Cup.

Source: BBC Sport ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Nico Williams assisted the winning goal for Ferran Torres in the 2026 World Cup final.

Source: BBC Sport ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Aymeric Laporte was a key cornerstone of Spain's defence in the 2026 World Cup, which conceded just one goal in eight matches.

Source: BBC Sport ↗

Elche CF

Form · out

Ali Houary has seen his participation decrease and has been left out of the last three matchday squads.

Source: Marca ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Ali Houary's release clause has been raised to over 15 million euros.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Ali Houary started in the first three league matches of the season.

Source: Marca ↗

Form · fit

Elche CF's planning was conditioned by budget limitations, leading to late market closures.

Source: Marca ↗

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Athletic Club

Line-up · confirmed

Robert Navarro scored after an assist from Iñaki Williams.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Nico Williams returned to scoring in the league.

Source: Marca ↗

Form · confirmed

Oihan Sancet scored a goal in the match against Atlético Madrid.

Source: Marca ↗

Form · fit

Robert Navarro scored a goal in the 48th minute for Athletic Club in their 3-0 victory over Atlético de Madrid.

Source: Marca ↗

Return · fit

Iñaki Williams has retired from international duty with Ghana.

Source: Marca ↗

Manager · confirmed

Edin Terzić is satisfied with his current role at Athletic Club.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · fit

Oihan Sancet is back in the Athletic Club squad and is expected to play a significant role.

Source: Marca ↗

Injury · out

Daniel Vivian is expected to return in approximately 14 days.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · fit

Iñaki Williams is capable of playing as a winger or a second striker.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · doubtful

Gorka Guruzeta did not participate in training at the same pace as his teammates.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Unai Simón is considered a potential candidate for the best goalkeeper in the world.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · fit

Álvaro Djaló is expected to be called up for the match against Elche.

Source: Marca ↗

Elche CF

Form · fit

Fer Niño scored in Elche's losses against Racing de Santander and Real Sociedad.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Matías Dituro is confirmed to start in goal for Elche.

Source: Marca ↗

Manager · confirmed

Martín Anselmi is the current head coach of Elche.

Source: Marca ↗

Form · fit

Real Sociedad is in good condition after a productive training week following their win against Elche.

Source: Marca ↗

Return · fit

Yago Santiago is in the readaptation phase and his incorporation with the group is imminent.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Fer Niño is expected to be a key offensive player for Elche.

Source: Marca ↗

Form · fit

Matías Dituro made a significant save from Luka Sučić in the match against Real Sociedad.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · fit

Petar Sucic has the ability to change a game and is being encouraged to do so more often.

Source: Marca ↗

Injury · fit

Thomas Lemar had a hamstring overload this week, but has been training with the group.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · fit

Federico Redondo has taken a step forward and is expected to contribute significantly.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · fit

Thomas Lemar showed his hierarchy.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · fit

Abiel Osorio showed promising details in his debut and is expected to contribute offensively for Elche.

Source: Marca ↗

Key Tactical Factors

Expected goals 2.10 vs 1.19 from attack and defence ratings
Over 2.5 goals 63.9%, both teams to score 61.0%
Most likely score 2-1 given the home win

✅ Prediction Audited

Final Score: 1-1. Our AI predicted 2-1 (HOME WIN). Outcome: INCORRECT ❌

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