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足球比分预测

Gameweek 5 • La Liga

🏟️ Estadio Municipal de Anoeta

主队

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

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预测赛果

2-1

Home Win (4.9/10)

2026年9月13日星期日 GMT+2 21:00

客队

Club Atlético de Madrid

查看球队档案 →

Real Sociedad de Fútbol (49%) 平局 (22%) Club Atlético de Madrid (29%)

推荐价值投注

基于过往战绩的泊松分布基线：预期进球数分别为 2.02 对 1.52，赛果概率分别为 49.4%/21.5%/29.1%。

🤖AI专家预测擂台

⚡ 分歧判决

📊

Baseline STAT

2-1主胜 CONTRARIAN

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 2.02 vs 1.52, outcome probabilities 49.4/21.5/29.1.

4.9/10

📊 基准模型

价值推介:

🎭

Claude Keeper

1-2客胜

尽管积分相同，但马德里竞技仍被看好。皇家社会因防守阵容的伤病/停赛而实力受损。博彩公司赔率 (2.34) 暗示客胜概率为 43%；考虑到马德里竞技近期的势头和皇家社会防守的脆弱性，校准后的分析认为概率为 41%。当前赔率下客胜有轻微价值。

4.1/10

🤖 LLM

价值推介:Club Atlético de Madrid to win @ 2.34

🧊

Kimi Cool

—未作答

failed: [moonshotai/kimi-k2-0905] answer truncated at 2500 tokens

0.0/10

🤖 LLM

价值推介:

⚡

Gemini Thunder

1-2客胜

马德里竞技在状态和评分上略占优势。尽管拥有主场优势，但皇家社会的关键停赛和近期对阵强队的失利表明客队获胜。客队赔率具有价值。

4.2/10

🤖 LLM

价值推介:Club Atlético de Madrid to win @ 2.34

🎯

GPT Striker

1-2客胜

马德里竞技近期的状态和交锋优势，加上皇家社会的关键球员停赛，表明客队很可能获胜。

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

价值推介:Club Atlético de Madrid to win @ 2.34

🧠

DeepThinker

—未作答

failed: score 1-1 disagrees with the most likely outcome (HOME_WIN)

0.0/10

🤖 LLM

价值推介:

Matchup context

Home: Real Sociedad de Fútbol — 11th (P5 W2 D1 L2, GF 6 GA 8, 7 pts, form WDWLL). Last five: A Elche CF 3-2 (W), H RC Celta de Vigo 0-0 (D), H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2-1 (W), A Real Madrid CF 1-4 (L), A Real Betis Balompié 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.10, defence 1.21 from 20 matches.

Away: Club Atlético de Madrid — 8th (P4 W2 D1 L1, GF 7 GA 6, 7 pts, form LWDW). Last five: A Athletic Club 0-3 (L), A Sevilla FC 3-1 (W), H Villarreal CF 2-2 (D), H Málaga CF 2-0 (W), A Villarreal CF 1-5 (L). Rating: attack 1.11, defence 1.15 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-07 Club Atlético de Madrid 3-2 Real Sociedad de Fútbol; 2026-01-04 Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1-1 Club Atlético de Madrid.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.02 vs 1.52; home 49.4% · draw 21.5% · away 29.1%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 68.5%; both teams to score 67.7%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 20 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-12 17:17 UTC): home 2.95 · draw 3.54 · away 2.34; over/under 2.5: 1.645/2.175.

预测锁定时的已核实事实

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

转会 · confirmed

Mamadou Sarr is a new signing for Real Sociedad.

来源: Marca ↗

转会 · confirmed

Héctor Fort is a new signing for Real Sociedad.

来源: Marca ↗

停赛 · out

Jon Martín is suspended for Real Sociedad.

来源: Marca ↗

复出 · fit

Luka Sučić scored the winning goal in the 90th minute.

来源: Marca ↗

伤病 · out

Jon Martín received a red card and is out for the next match.

来源: Marca ↗

状态 · confirmed

Ochieng experienced calf cramps during the match but continued playing.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Pellegrino Matarazzo asked Ochieng to perform as he used to do for Sanse.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · fit

Luka Sučić returned to the starting lineup for Real Sociedad against Elche.

来源: Marca ↗

状态 · fit

Luka Sučić scored a goal against Real Madrid earlier in the season.

来源: Marca ↗

伤病 · out

Pablo Marín is out due to injury.

来源: Marca ↗

伤病 · out

Álvaro Odriozola is out due to injury.

来源: Marca ↗

状态 · fit

Yangel Herrera has participated in all five official Real Sociedad matches this season, starting four of them.

来源: Marca ↗

Club Atlético de Madrid

阵容 · confirmed

Julián Álvarez was in Atlético's starting lineup for the first time this season.

来源: The Guardian ↗

伤病 · fit

Marcos Llorente scored Atlético's goal.

来源: The Guardian ↗

状态 · confirmed

Jan Oblak conceded the winning goal for Atletico Madrid against Liverpool.

来源: BBC Sport ↗

状态 · confirmed

Marcos Llorente scored the opening goal for Atletico Madrid against Liverpool.

来源: BBC Sport ↗

状态 · confirmed

Óskarsson and Barrenetxea have started the season well, scoring in the win against Espanyol.

来源: Marca ↗

转会 · confirmed

Julián Álvarez continues at Atlético de Madrid.

来源: Marca ↗

阵容 · confirmed

Ademola Lookman was introduced to add an extra dimension to Atlético's attack.

来源: The Guardian ↗

阵容 · fit

Pellegrino Matarazzo may choose to start Luka Sucic on one of the wings instead of Kubo.

来源: Marca ↗

关键战术因素

根据攻防评分，预期进球数 2.02 对 1.52
大于 2.5 球 68.5%，双方均进球 67.7%
考虑到主胜，最可能比分 2-1

公开审计承诺

本预测在开赛前已通过时间戳加密记录。赛后，审计代理将在公开账本上评估预测准确性。

查看历史战绩 →

来自俱乐部

比赛期间的官方俱乐部视频。

HIGHLIGHTS | 3ª RFEF 26-27 | J2 | Real Sociedad C 2-0 Lagun Onak FT | Zubieta Real Sociedad TV · 2026年9月12日

🎙️ SIMEONE | Rueda de prensa de Simeone previa al Real Sociedad-Atlético de Madrid | LALIGA J5 Atlético de Madrid · 2026年9月12日

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