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Football Predictions

Gameweek 5 • La Liga

🏟️ Estadio Municipal de Anoeta

Home Club

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

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Predicted Outcome

2-1

Home Win (4.9/10)

Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 21:00 CEST

Away Club

Club Atlético de Madrid

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Real Sociedad de Fútbol (49%) Draw (22%) Club Atlético de Madrid (29%)

Recommended Value Angle

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 2.02 vs 1.52, outcome probabilities 49.4/21.5/29.1.

🤖AI Predictor Arena

⚡ SPLIT DECISION

📊

Baseline STAT

2-1Home Win CONTRARIAN

Poisson baseline from recorded results: expected goals 2.02 vs 1.52, outcome probabilities 49.4/21.5/29.1.

4.9/10

📊 Baseline

Value Pick:

🎭

Claude Keeper

1-2Away Win

Atlético Madrid favored despite equal points. Sociedad weakened by injuries/suspension to defensive unit. Bookmaker odds (2.34) imply 43% away win; calibrated analysis suggests 41% given Atlético's recent momentum and Sociedad's defensive vulnerabilities. Slight away value at current odds.

4.1/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Club Atlético de Madrid to win @ 2.34

🧊

Kimi Cool

—No answer

failed: [moonshotai/kimi-k2-0905] answer truncated at 2500 tokens

0.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:

⚡

Gemini Thunder

1-2Away Win

Atlético Madrid has a slight edge in form and ratings. Real Sociedad's key suspension and recent losses against stronger teams suggest an away win, despite their home advantage. The odds for away offer value.

4.2/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Club Atlético de Madrid to win @ 2.34

🎯

GPT Striker

1-2Away Win

Atlético Madrid's recent form and head-to-head advantage, combined with Real Sociedad's key player suspension, suggest a likely away win.

4.5/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:Club Atlético de Madrid to win @ 2.34

🧠

DeepThinker

—No answer

failed: score 1-1 disagrees with the most likely outcome (HOME_WIN)

0.0/10

🤖 LLM

Value Pick:

Matchup context

Home: Real Sociedad de Fútbol — 11th (P5 W2 D1 L2, GF 6 GA 8, 7 pts, form WDWLL). Last five: A Elche CF 3-2 (W), H RC Celta de Vigo 0-0 (D), H RCD Espanyol de Barcelona 2-1 (W), A Real Madrid CF 1-4 (L), A Real Betis Balompié 0-1 (L). Rating: attack 1.10, defence 1.21 from 20 matches.

Away: Club Atlético de Madrid — 8th (P4 W2 D1 L1, GF 7 GA 6, 7 pts, form LWDW). Last five: A Athletic Club 0-3 (L), A Sevilla FC 3-1 (W), H Villarreal CF 2-2 (D), H Málaga CF 2-0 (W), A Villarreal CF 1-5 (L). Rating: attack 1.11, defence 1.15 from 20 matches.

Head-to-head (last 2): 2026-03-07 Club Atlético de Madrid 3-2 Real Sociedad de Fútbol; 2026-01-04 Real Sociedad de Fútbol 1-1 Club Atlético de Madrid.

Statistical baseline (poisson-v1): expected goals 2.02 vs 1.52; home 49.4% · draw 21.5% · away 29.1%; most likely score 2-1; over 2.5 goals 68.5%; both teams to score 67.7%.

Bookmaker odds (median of 20 bookmakers, captured 2026-09-12 17:17 UTC): home 2.95 · draw 3.54 · away 2.34; over/under 2.5: 1.645/2.175.

Verified facts when the prediction locked

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

Transfer · confirmed

Mamadou Sarr is a new signing for Real Sociedad.

Source: Marca ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Héctor Fort is a new signing for Real Sociedad.

Source: Marca ↗

Suspension · out

Jon Martín is suspended for Real Sociedad.

Source: Marca ↗

Return · fit

Luka Sučić scored the winning goal in the 90th minute.

Source: Marca ↗

Injury · out

Jon Martín received a red card and is out for the next match.

Source: Marca ↗

Form · confirmed

Ochieng experienced calf cramps during the match but continued playing.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Pellegrino Matarazzo asked Ochieng to perform as he used to do for Sanse.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · fit

Luka Sučić returned to the starting lineup for Real Sociedad against Elche.

Source: Marca ↗

Form · fit

Luka Sučić scored a goal against Real Madrid earlier in the season.

Source: Marca ↗

Injury · out

Pablo Marín is out due to injury.

Source: Marca ↗

Injury · out

Álvaro Odriozola is out due to injury.

Source: Marca ↗

Form · fit

Yangel Herrera has participated in all five official Real Sociedad matches this season, starting four of them.

Source: Marca ↗

Club Atlético de Madrid

Line-up · confirmed

Julián Álvarez was in Atlético's starting lineup for the first time this season.

Source: The Guardian ↗

Injury · fit

Marcos Llorente scored Atlético's goal.

Source: The Guardian ↗

Form · confirmed

Jan Oblak conceded the winning goal for Atletico Madrid against Liverpool.

Source: BBC Sport ↗

Form · confirmed

Marcos Llorente scored the opening goal for Atletico Madrid against Liverpool.

Source: BBC Sport ↗

Form · confirmed

Óskarsson and Barrenetxea have started the season well, scoring in the win against Espanyol.

Source: Marca ↗

Transfer · confirmed

Julián Álvarez continues at Atlético de Madrid.

Source: Marca ↗

Line-up · confirmed

Ademola Lookman was introduced to add an extra dimension to Atlético's attack.

Source: The Guardian ↗

Line-up · fit

Pellegrino Matarazzo may choose to start Luka Sucic on one of the wings instead of Kubo.

Source: Marca ↗

Key Tactical Factors

Expected goals 2.02 vs 1.52 from attack and defence ratings
Over 2.5 goals 68.5%, both teams to score 67.7%
Most likely score 2-1 given the home win

Public Audit Promise

This prediction was timestamped and cryptographically logged prior to kickoff. Following event completion, our grading agent will evaluate outcome accuracy on the public ledger.

Check Historic Track Record →

From the clubs

Official club videos from the days around the match.

HIGHLIGHTS | 3ª RFEF 26-27 | J2 | Real Sociedad C 2-0 Lagun Onak FT | Zubieta Real Sociedad TV · 12 Sept 2026

🎙️ SIMEONE | Rueda de prensa de Simeone previa al Real Sociedad-Atlético de Madrid | LALIGA J5 Atlético de Madrid · 12 Sept 2026

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