Two sides in the wrong half of the table
Atalanta host Parma at the Stadio Atleti Azzurri d’Italia on Monday 2 November, kicking off at 19:45 UTC in round 10. Neither side is where it would like to be. Atalanta are 13th with 11 points from nine games (three wins, two draws, four defeats), having scored 16 and conceded 17. Parma are 18th with 5 points from a record of one win, two draws and six defeats, with 5 goals scored and 15 conceded.
The gap in output is the clearest difference between them. Atalanta’s attack rating in the site’s model is 1.186, against 0.645 for Parma. Parma’s only league win this season was a 2-1 home victory over Genoa on 20 September, and they have not won since. Their form line reads DLLLW, most recently a goalless draw with Udinese at the Tardini.
Atalanta’s form line is DDLWL, and it looks more like a team in flux than one in decline. Maurizio Sarri is now in charge, [1] reports, and the squad has seen new arrivals. [2] confirmed Jonathan Rowe’s move from Bologna, while [3] covered Franck Kessie’s decision to pick Atalanta over Juventus.
Atalanta’s goals come with a price
Sarri’s side have not been dull. Their last five league results are a 2-2 draw at Fiorentina, a 4-4 draw with Frosinone, a 3-2 defeat at Milan, a 3-1 win over Venezia and a 2-0 defeat at Juventus. That is 11 goals scored and 12 conceded in five matches, which explains why the models see goals at both ends as a real possibility.
The baseline reflects that. It puts the chance of both teams scoring at 51.1% and the chance of over 2.5 goals at 51.5%. Its expected goals are 1.78 for Atalanta and 0.95 for Parma, which is why the most likely single score is 1-0 to the hosts.
Atalanta also have absentees to manage. [4] reported Kamaldeen Sulemana out injured after the Ajax game, and [5] noted that Relja Obric made his senior debut after an injury to Sead Kolašinac. Defensive depth is therefore worth watching. On the positive side, [6] reported Marco Carnesecchi saving a penalty against Milan.
Parma’s problem is finding goals
Parma’s season has been a struggle at both ends. They lost 3-0 at Inter on 10 October, 3-0 at home to Torino on 19 October and 2-1 at Lazio on 24 October, before the 0-0 draw with Udinese on 28 October. The Udinese game was at least a clean sheet. [7] noted a goalline clearance from Mariano Troilo in that match.
The team news is mixed. [8] reported Nesta Elphege out after an appendix operation and the only absentee for the Udinese game. Earlier lists were longer: Hans Nicolussi Caviglia was out against Torino, according to [9], and Pontus Almqvist was on the absentee list for the Lazio game, per [10]. The latest picture should become clearer closer to kick-off.
Parma were also open at Lazio. [11] quoted Alberto Gilardino, described there as the club’s manager, saying the team conceded far too easily. The head-to-head record adds to the concern: Atalanta won the January meeting 4-0 at home, after the sides drew 1-1 at Parma in August 2025.
What the predictions say
The five AI models agree on the winner and differ mainly on the margin. Claude Keeper is the most confident, with 2-0 and a 68% home win. GPT Striker has 2-0 at 65%, Kimi Cool has 2-0 at 62%, Gemini Thunder has 2-1 at 65%, and DeepThinker has 2-1 at 60%. Averaged, the models give Atalanta 64%, the draw 21% and Parma 15%, a little higher for the home side than the baseline’s 56.9%.
The argument is simple. Parma have scored the fewest goals in the picture here and have lost six of nine, while Atalanta have the better attack and the home advantage. The models differ on whether Parma score. Three of them back a clean sheet, which fits Parma’s 0.645 attack rating. Two give Parma a goal, which fits Atalanta’s recent habit of conceding. The baseline’s 23.2% draw chance is a reminder that Parma held Udinese goalless last time out and have shown they can make games awkward. Atalanta’s win probability is high, but their results, including two straight draws, show the margin for error is smaller than the numbers suggest.
Sources
- Football Italia: Gasperini: ‘Roma’s plan was to win the Scudetto in 3 years, we wouldn’t mind getting there sooner’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Sarri: ‘Only positive start was with Chelsea, not good memories of Juventus’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Kessie explains why he chose Atalanta over Juventus: ‘This city is everything for me’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: UECL | Ajax 2-0 Atalanta: Dea undone by two late goals football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Atalanta fightback positive, but Sarri feels Rabiot should see red for insult football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Rabiot and Gila ‘angry’ after Milan threaten to fumble 3-0 advantage football-italia.net ↩
- The Guardian: High-flying Lazio’s thrashing of Sassuolo marked by Mussolini’s first Serie A goal | Nicky Bandini theguardian.com ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Parma 0-0 Udinese: Everybody unhappy in relegation battle football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Parma 0-3 Torino: Simeone double spoils Gilardino’s Tardini bow football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Lazio 2-1 Parma: Eagles keep flying high in top spot football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Gilardino: ‘Parma conceded far too easily, but must keep positive attitude’ football-italia.net ↩
