Match Overview
SV Werder Bremen is set to host FC Augsburg at the Weserstadion in what promises to be an intriguing Bundesliga encounter. Augsburg arrives in Bremen on the back of a strong start to their campaign, currently occupying third place in the league standings with seven points from three matches. Their recent form includes two wins and a draw, showcasing a potent attack that has netted nine goals while conceding only three. In contrast, Werder Bremen sits tenth with four points, having secured one win, one draw, and one loss. They have scored five goals and conceded six. The home side will be looking to leverage their home advantage, but they face a significant challenge in the form of an extensive injury list that could impact their performance. The last meeting between these two sides at the Weserstadion saw Augsburg emerge victorious with a 3-1 scoreline in May 2026, while the reverse fixture in December 2025 ended in a goalless draw.
Team News and Form
FC Augsburg comes into this fixture with considerable momentum. Their recent results include a 2-2 draw against Bayer 04 Leverkusen, a dominant 4-1 away win over Eintracht Frankfurt, and a 3-0 home victory against FC Schalke 04. Key players have been in impressive form, with Michael Gregoritsch becoming FC Augsburg’s record Bundesliga goalscorer after his brace against Leverkusen [1]. Fabian Rieder has also been influential, scoring a free-kick against Eintracht Frankfurt and moving into his preferred central midfield role [2]. Arijon Ibrahimovic, on loan from Bayern Munich, scored against Frankfurt, further bolstering their attacking options [3]. On the transfer front, Augsburg invested 3.5 million Euros in Hennes Behrens at the start of the season [4], while Kristijan Jakić has departed for Greece [5].
Werder Bremen, on the other hand, is grappling with a significant injury crisis. Keke Topp (knee), Justin Njinmah (hamstring), Jens Stage (thigh), Felix Agu (muscular), and Senne Lynen (abdominal) are all sidelined [6]. Despite these setbacks, Bremen managed a 1-1 draw against 1. FC Köln in their last outing, following a 3-1 home win against RB Leipzig and a 4-1 loss to SC Freiburg. Niclas Füllkrug, on loan from West Ham United, is a key figure for Bremen [7]. Marco Grüll scored in their victory against Leipzig [8], and Eren Dinkçi hit the crossbar in their recent draw [9]. Ludovit Reis has also transferred to Werder Bremen [10].
Model Predictions
The predictive models offer a divided outlook for this match, though a majority lean towards an away victory for FC Augsburg. The baseline Poisson model predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely score, with Augsburg having a 43.8% chance of winning, compared to Bremen’s 32.3% and a 23.9% chance of a draw. This model suggests expected goals of 1.39 for Bremen and 1.66 for Augsburg. Kimi-cool and Gemini-flash both forecast a 1-2 away win for Augsburg, citing their superior attack, defensive solidity, and Bremen’s extensive injury list. Kimi-cool assigns a 40% probability to an away win, while Gemini-flash gives it a 45% chance. GPT-striker also aligns with a 1-2 away win, emphasizing Augsburg’s better form and scoring ability, and Bremen’s injury woes, giving a 45% probability for an away victory. Conversely, Opus and Deep-thinker predict a 2-1 home win for Werder Bremen. Opus gives Bremen a 38% chance, noting that bookmaker odds might undervalue Bremen’s home position despite Augsburg’s strong form and Bremen’s injuries. Deep-thinker assigns a 40% probability to a home win, suggesting that Bremen’s resilience at home could balance Augsburg’s form and Bremen’s injury concerns.
Sources
- Kicker: Gregoritsch neu dabei: Die Rekordtorschützen der 18 Bundesligisten kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Fabian Rieder on Augsburg's table-topping start to the season, the World Cup and more bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Augsburg on top: Manuel Baum‘s men make a flying start to the 2026/27 campaign bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Behrens startet durch - und bald zu Klopp? kicker.de ↩
- Kicker: Wieder Griechenland: Augsburg gibt Jakic doch noch ab kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bundesliga Matchday 3 teams bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: 'Drama of leaving long gone' - Niclas Füllkrug embracing Werder Bremen return bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: 'Incredible' win after 'turbulent' week - Werder Bremen's statement victory over RB Leipzig bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Niclas Füllkrug strike earns Werder Bremen draw at Cologne bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Reis' doppelte Liebeserklärung: "Ich kann jede Reaktion verstehen" kicker.de ↩
