Who is in and who is out
Bayern go into the Klassiker at the Allianz Arena with an unusual list of absentees. Captain Manuel Neuer will miss the match against Borussia Dortmund, and [1] does not give a reason. The same report says head coach Vincent Kompany is also absent, and it notes that the club has had turbulent days. A second [2] item adds that Kompany will not be at the training ground yet.
There is one possible piece of good news. Assistant coach Aaron Danks said Joshua Kimmich could return to the squad for the Dortmund game. Kicker’s reporting treats that as a possibility rather than a certainty: our records mark Kimmich as doubtful, with moderate confidence. Anyone planning around a Kimmich start should treat it as unconfirmed until the team sheet appears.
With the head coach away and the captain missing, the assistant staff and the senior players on the pitch carry more of the match-day load than usual.
Kane set to return
The most important selection news is up front. Harry Kane was an unused substitute in Bayern’s 6-1 DFB Cup win over 1. FC Magdeburg on Tuesday, and [3] reports that he is set to return to the starting XI against Dortmund. The same report says CEO Jan-Christian Dreesen expects Kane’s contract extension to be finalised within days.
His record in this fixture is the main reason for the expectation. A [4] credits Kane with eight goals in nine competitive meetings with Dortmund. It also puts him on 10 goals in 12 appearances across all competitions this season, which is a strong scoring rate for a player who has just spent a cup night on the bench.
That preview is mostly a player comparison and carries little news on selection. Still, the numbers show why Bayern would want their main scorer fresh for a game of this size.
Dortmund’s counterpoint
Dortmund arrive with their own striker in form. The same preview credits Serhou Guirassy with seven goals in all competitions, three fewer than Kane, but enough to make him the visitors’ obvious focal point. The comparison is the central story of the build-up: two centre-forwards who decide how many chances their sides turn into goals.
There is also a fitness boost for the visitors. [5] reports that 18-year-old midfielder Konstantinos Karetsas is set to return to the Dortmund squad after recovering from a ligament injury sustained in mid-October. The article is a short fitness report, so it does not say whether he will start. A young midfielder coming back gives Dortmund another option in a match where Bayern’s own midfield picture is uncertain because of Kimmich’s doubtful status.
Neither side’s lineup is confirmed, so the final shape of both midfields will only be clear close to kick-off.
What it means
Bayern sit first in the Bundesliga with 17 points from seven games: five wins, two draws and no defeats, with 25 goals scored and 6 conceded. The recent form is strong but not flawless. They beat SC Freiburg 3-1 away and RB Leipzig 6-1 at home, but drew 2-2 at FC Augsburg in the league. Their Champions League results in the same stretch were a 3-3 draw at Viking FK and a 2-2 home draw with Arsenal. The attack is clearly productive, but Bayern have conceded in each of their last five matches.
That is the question Dortmund pose. Bayern have scored at least twice in all five of those games, so the visitors will need goals of their own to stay in the match, and Guirassy is the obvious route. Bayern, for their part, must manage a night without Neuer and Kompany while hoping Kimmich is fit.
predict.game’s forecast favours the hosts: Bayern to win at 68.0%, a draw at 19.0% and a Dortmund win at 13.0%, with a predicted score of 3-1. That scoreline fits a team that has scored heavily and a striker with eight goals in nine meetings against this opponent. The main risk to the forecast is the disruption off the pitch and the open defensive record.
Sources
- Kicker: Die Bayern und die Frage: Wann ist Alltag? kicker.de ↩
- Kicker: Kimmich vor Comeback: "Alltag, nichts sehnt der FC Bayern mehr herbei" kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: 'It's just going to take a few days' - Harry Kane edging closer to Bayern Munich contract agreement bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: How do Bayern Munich's Harry Kane and Borussia Dortmund's Serhou Guirassy compare? bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Nach Bandverletzung: Karetsas kehrt gegen den FC Bayern zurück kicker.de ↩
