A unanimous call that landed
Bologna beat Monza 2-1 in Serie A, and the result matched every prediction on the sheet. Claude Keeper, Kimi Cool, Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker, DeepThinker and the Baseline all went for a 2-1 home win, so all six were right on the outcome and the exact score.
The Brier scores still separated them, because they measure how much probability each model put on the result. Claude Keeper was sharpest at 0.2168, followed by Kimi Cool at 0.2664. Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker all finished on 0.305, and the Baseline trailed at 0.3465. Same pick, different confidence: the lower the number, the more conviction was rewarded.
Five of the six also logged a value pick on the home side at odds of 1.7. It landed for each of them, a profit of 0.7 units per pick. The Baseline made no value selection. It was a clean day for the leaderboard, though a unanimous call carries little information about who is better. It mostly shows that the pre-match picture was clear.
Bologna’s momentum carries on
The pre-match record explained the consensus. Bologna came in having beaten AC Milan 4-2 away, a result [1] reported in the days before this fixture. Before that they won 2-0 at Cagliari, and the only recent defeat was 3-1 at home to Inter. A run of W-W-L-W-D going into the game became W-W-L-W-W after it.
They did it with a thin squad. [2] listed Riccardo Orsolini as out with a hamstring injury, alongside Roberto Piccoli and Emil Holm, who were both sidelined with muscular strains earlier in the month. Bologna had also changed coach, appointing Raffaele Palladino, as [3] confirmed ahead of the Inter game.
At home, with that form behind them, Bologna’s 2-1 win was the expected outcome. They scored two for the third time in four league games, and the models’ shared forecast of a narrow home win looks sensible in hindsight.
Monza’s slide continues
Monza arrived in poor form, and the defeat extends it. Before the trip they had lost 4-1 at home to Napoli and 3-2 at Torino. The 4-0 win over Cagliari, headlined by Gustavo Varela’s double, was the exception in a run of five that also included a 3-1 loss at Lazio.
Varela remains the bright spot. [4] noted he had scored eight goals in eight Serie A games this season. Monza also had a decent home record before the Napoli game, having won their last two at the U-Power Stadium, against Sassuolo and Cagliari, according to [5].
The absences did not help. Matteo Pessina and Yvan Maye were both listed as injured for the Napoli game, per [6]. Ivan Juric’s side did score at Bologna, but defence is the persistent issue: 24 goals conceded in 10 league games, an average well above two per match.
What it means
For Bologna, the win lifts them to eighth in Serie A with 14 points from 10 games (W4 D2 L4, goals 14 for, 13 against). Four wins in their last five league matches is the form of a side moving up the table, and the goal difference is now positive. Their next fixture is away at Parma on 7 November. After back-to-back away wins and a home win, it asks whether they can keep the run going on the road. The site’s forecast for that game locks 24 hours before kick-off.
For Monza, the picture is harder. They stay 16th with 7 points from 10 (W2 D1 L7, goals 17 for, 24 against) and have lost their last two league games, after the loss at Torino and the Napoli defeat. Their next match is at home to Atalanta on 8 November. That will test a defence that has leaked 24 goals, and it is a chance to recover home form that was solid until Napoli. The site’s forecast for that fixture also locks 24 hours before kick-off.
Sources
- Football Italia: Gonçalo Ramos’ Milan struggles continue in 4-2 loss vs. Bologna football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A official line-ups: Milan vs. Bologna football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A line-ups: Bologna vs. Inter football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Report Gustavo Varela to get first senior Portugal call after 8 goals for Monza football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Juric saw positive Monza performance ‘until we started to gift Napoli goals’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Monza 1-4 Napoli: Hojlund breaks drought, but Lobotka scare football-italia.net ↩
