Two sides heading in different directions
Bologna host Monza at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara on 31 October in round 10 of Serie A, and the recent results point clearly one way. Bologna are 11th with 11 points from nine games, and their last five league results read WWLWD. The latest was a 4-2 win away at AC Milan on 28 October, which [1] reported as another blow for a struggling Milan. Four days earlier they won 2-0 at Cagliari. The only recent defeat was a 3-1 home loss to Inter on 17 October.
Monza sit 16th with seven points from nine matches, two wins, one draw and six defeats. Their last five league results run L, L, W, L, W, and the most recent was a 4-1 home defeat to Napoli on 28 October. Before that they lost 3-2 at Torino, a game in which, according to [2], Ivan Juric was back on the touchline as coach. They also beat Cagliari 4-0 at home on 19 October, so the picture is not one of simple collapse. It is a team that scores and concedes in volume.
The table gap is small, with four points between the sides, but the underlying records differ. Bologna have scored 12 and conceded 12. Monza have scored 16 and conceded 22, the heaviest goals-against column of the two by a distance. Playing at home as the side in better form, Bologna start as clear favourites.
Team news and who might decide it
Bologna’s absence list is mostly in the attack. [3] reported before the Milan game that Riccardo Orsolini was out with a hamstring injury, alongside Roberto Piccoli and Emil Holm, who had both been sidelined with muscular strains. Those absences did not stop four goals at San Siro, which suggests the squad has cover. Lewis Ferguson, meanwhile, had played every minute and captained the side in every league game up to late September, according to [4]. He remains the anchor of the midfield. Samuel Mbangula, who joined in the summer, is another name to watch if fit, having missed the Lecce match through injury.
Monza’s problems are broader. Idrissa Touré and Exequiel Zeballos were both listed as injured in mid-October. Matteo Pessina, Jan Ziółkowski and Mayé followed on the injury list, and [5] again named Yvan Maye and Pessina as unavailable against Napoli. Lorenzo Lucchesi is the one positive, back from suspension after missing the Cagliari game.
The player who can still swing the game for Monza is Gustavo Varela. [6] noted that he has scored eight goals in eight Serie A games this season, a remarkable return for a side in the bottom half. If Monza score, the chances are that he is involved.
What the models see
The Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, projects 2.19 goals for Bologna and 1.56 for Monza. It gives the outcomes as 52.1% home win, 20.5% draw and 27.4% away win, with 2-1 the most likely single scoreline. It also puts both teams scoring at 70.2% and more than 2.5 goals at 72.4%. That fits what the sides have produced: Monza’s games have been open, and Bologna have scored at least two in three of their last five.
The five forecasting models agree on the scoreline and differ only on confidence. Claude Keeper is the most bullish, at 62% home, 20% draw and 18% away. Kimi Cool goes 58/24/18. Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker each sit at 55/25/20. Every one of them points to Bologna’s momentum after the Milan result and to Monza’s defensive record, while allowing that Monza’s attack gives them a route to a goal.
The models all rate Monza’s away chances below the baseline’s 27.4%, between 18% and 20%. The baseline has no information on injuries or the Napoli result, which may explain the gap. Still, an away win is not far-fetched given Monza’s scoring rate, and it is the outcome the models may be underrating.
What it means
For Bologna, a win would lift them past 11 points and further from a midfield pack that is still tightly bunched. They are 11th, with a level goal difference, so a home win over a struggling side is the kind of result that separates a decent start from a good one. The form line of WWLWD says they are on the right track.
For Monza, the numbers are harder. Seven points from nine games and 22 conceded leave them 16th, and trips to well-organised sides have gone badly. The question this fixture asks is whether Juric can make a side with several injured regulars hold its shape for 90 minutes. If it can, Varela’s scoring gives them a chance of a point. If not, the common forecast of 2-1 to Bologna looks the likeliest outcome, and with both teams likely to score, a tight finish is plausible.
Sources
- Football Italia: Gonçalo Ramos’ Milan struggles continue in 4-2 loss vs. Bologna football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Torino 3-2 Monza: Belghali stunner spoils Juric’s return football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A official line-ups: Milan vs. Bologna football-italia.net ↩
- Sky Sports: Ferguson: Rangers dream always in back of my mind skysports.com ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Monza 1-4 Napoli: Hojlund breaks drought, but Lobotka scare football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Report Gustavo Varela to get first senior Portugal call after 8 goals for Monza football-italia.net ↩
