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Matchday Intelligence Bologna FC 1909 · Friday, 30 October 2026 at 14:04 CET

Bologna's Milan win, and what Monza will ask next

Bologna won 4-2 at San Siro on Mbangula's hat-trick. A look at their run, their record at home and the visit of Monza on 31 October.

predict.game Sources: 4 ↓

In short

  • Samuel Mbangula's hat-trick sealed a 4-2 comeback win at San Siro and gave Amorim his first Serie A defeat at Milan.
  • All three of Bologna's league wins this season have come away from home, at Lecce, Cagliari and Milan.
  • Bologna are 11th on 11 points from 9 games, with 12 goals scored and 12 conceded, and host Monza on 31 October.

A comeback at San Siro

Bologna came from behind to beat AC Milan 4-2 in Serie A, and the night belonged to Samuel Mbangula, who scored a hat-trick, according to [1]. The defeat was Rúben Amorim’s first in the league as Milan coach, and it ended an unbeaten Serie A run under him. Bologna arrived in form on the road, having already won their two previous away league games at Lecce and Cagliari. San Siro made it three away wins in a row.

Milan’s own side of the story was blunt. Captain Mike Maignan said Bologna were better in the penalty area, as [2] reported. It is a short verdict, but it points at the right place. Four goals conceded at home is not the sign of a team that was merely unlucky. It suggests Bologna found the more dangerous positions and finished what they found.

For a side that had been inconsistent, the performance had two parts: the recovery after going behind, and the decisive finishing from a single forward. Both are worth watching again, because neither can be taken for granted in the next match.

Milan’s injuries and the derby

The result looks different once Milan’s situation is added. Before the game, [3] reported that Amorim was without eight players, among them Loftus-Cheek, Rabiot, Moreira and Gila. His list grew during the match, when Fikayo Tomori went off injured before half-time, according to [1]. Bologna were therefore playing a weakened side that lost a defender mid-game.

That context should temper any reading of the score, but it does not erase it. The loss was Milan’s second in three matches and left them seven points behind Inter and Lazio at the top, per [2]. Maignan said the team must avoid overreacting, though it needs to defend better after losing the ball. The derby against Inter comes on Saturday.

There is some good news for Milan. [4] reports that Gila, Rabiot and Moreira trained fully and should be available. Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Chukwueze and Gabbia are set to miss out, and Tomori’s fitness is still to be assessed.

Bologna’s recent run

The record for the last five listed results is a split picture. Bologna won 2-1 at Lecce on 11 October, lost 1-3 at home to Inter six days later, won 2-0 at Cagliari on 24 October and then won 4-2 at Milan on 28 October. Before that run, they drew 1-1 at home to Torino on 19 September.

Set out like that, the pattern is clear. Every win in that list came away from home. The two home matches in it produced a draw and a defeat. The Inter game at the Dall’Ara was the one real blemish in the recent sequence, and it came between two efficient away performances.

The goals show a team that scores when it travels. Bologna put two past Lecce, two past Cagliari and four past Milan, while conceding once, nil and twice. That is eight scored and three conceded across three away wins. Their season totals are level, at 12 scored and 12 conceded, so the recent run has been better than the full-season average. It is a short sample, and the Milan game also came against a side missing a long list of players.

What it means

Bologna are 11th in Serie A with 11 points from 9 played, a record of three wins, two draws and four defeats, with a goal difference of zero. That is a mid-table position, and the table is unlikely to be settled yet. The recent form is the encouraging part: three wins in the last four listed matches, and two in a row after the Inter defeat.

The awkward detail is the venue. All three of Bologna’s league wins this season have come away from home, at Lecce, Cagliari and Milan. They have not yet won a league game at home. The next fixture is exactly that test: Bologna host Monza on 31 October.

That match asks a different question from the one San Siro asked. Away, Bologna could counter and use space against a stretched, depleted Milan. At home against Monza they are more likely to have the ball and need to turn it into goals, which is what has been missing in the Torino draw and the Inter defeat. If Mbangula’s finishing carries over, the first home win is realistic. If it does not, the 12 goals scored in nine games suggest the attack is not yet reliable enough to dominate.

The site’s forecast for the match locks 24 hours before kick-off, so the final numbers will be published then and graded after the result.

Sources

  1. Football Italia: Serie A | Milan 2-4 Bologna: Mbangula hat-trick inflicts first Amorim league defeat football-italia.net ↩
  2. Football Italia: Maignan won’t throw ‘fuel on fire’ after Milan’s 4-2 loss vs. Bologna football-italia.net ↩
  3. Football Italia: Video: Cardinale all smiles at San Siro before Milan-Bologna football-italia.net ↩
  4. Football Italia: Triple Milan injury boost ahead of derby against Inter football-italia.net ↩

Written by predict.game's models from the sources listed. How our content is made →

  1. Bologna 2-1 Monza: every model nailed the exact scoreInjuries & Fitness, 31 Oct
  2. Bologna vs Monza preview: home edge against a leaky defenceInjuries & Fitness, 30 Oct
  3. Bologna's Win at Milan: Mbangula's Hat-Trick and the Monza TestMatchday Intelligence, 29 Oct
  4. Inter Milan Extends Lead at the Top with Victory Over BolognaInjuries & Fitness, 18 Oct