Match Preview
Como 1907 is set to host US Sassuolo Calcio at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in what promises to be a compelling Serie A encounter. The home side, under coach Fàbregas, has been in impressive form, securing three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five league matches. Their recent victory, a 3-1 away triumph against ACF Fiorentina, highlights their attacking prowess and ability to perform on the road. Key players like Martin Baturina have been instrumental, with Baturina scoring for Como in a previous fixture [1]. Como has also been active in the transfer market, bringing in several new faces this summer, including Kaiki [2], Mattia Liberali [3], Samuele Ricci [4], and Moise Kean from Fiorentina [5]. Anastasios Douvikas has also agreed to an improved contract, signaling the club’s commitment to retaining talent [6]. However, Como will be without Maxence Caqueret and Donyell Malen due to suspension for this Serie A match [7], [8].
Sassuolo, managed by Alberto Aquilani, arrives at this fixture facing a challenging period. Their recent form shows two draws, two losses, and one win in their last five league outings, including a 4-2 defeat to Frosinone Calcio and a 1-1 draw against AC Milan. The team is currently battling a significant injury crisis, with Cristian Volpato, Jay Idzes, Ismael Koné, Daniel Boloca, Sebastian Walukiewicz, and Fedde Leysen all sidelined [9], [10]. Despite these setbacks, players like Vasilije Adzic, on loan from Juventus, feel trusted by coach Aquilani, who focuses on developing young talent [11]. Sebastiano Esposito, a summer arrival, is seen by Aquilani primarily as a centre-forward or attacking midfielder [12]. Cas Odenthal scored the equalising goal for Sassuolo in their draw against Milan [12].
Model Predictions
All prediction models are in agreement, forecasting a home win for Como 1907. The baseline Poisson model predicts a 2-1 home win, with Como having a 61.9% chance of victory, a 20.3% chance of a draw, and Sassuolo an 17.8% chance of an away win. The expected goals for Como are 2.12, compared to Sassuolo’s 1.04. The Opus model is even more confident, assigning a 68.0% probability to a Como win, citing their strong league position, recent momentum, and attacking quality. Opus also notes Sassuolo’s injury crisis and poor form as compounding their disadvantage. Gemini-Flash predicts a 2-1 home win with a 55.0% probability for Como, highlighting Como’s strong recent form and better attack/defence rating, alongside Sassuolo’s struggles and injuries. GPT-Striker and Deep-Thinker both align with a 2-1 home win, giving Como a 60.0% chance of victory. They emphasize Como’s strong home performance, defensive record, and Sassuolo’s injury woes and inconsistent form as key factors. The consensus among models points towards a challenging outing for Sassuolo, particularly given their extensive injury list and Como’s current momentum.
Head-to-Head and Key Players
The recent head-to-head record between these two clubs shows a split, with Como 1907 securing a 2-1 victory at US Sassuolo Calcio in April 2026, and Sassuolo winning 2-0 at Como in November 2025. These results suggest that home advantage could play a significant role in this fixture. For Como, the attacking contributions of players like Martin Baturina will be crucial, especially with the recent influx of talent like Moise Kean and Jesus Rodriguez, who joined from Real Betis in the summer of 2025 for a reported fee exceeding $31m [13]. Lucas Da Cunha also returns to the starting XI, adding another offensive option [14]. Goalkeeper Jean Butez will be looking to keep a clean sheet after conceding a goal in a previous match [15].
Sassuolo will rely on the experience of players like Sebastiano Esposito, who coach Aquilani views as a key attacking asset. Vasilije Adzic, who feels trusted by the coach, will also be important in midfield. In defense, Cas Odenthal’s ability to contribute offensively, as seen with his equalizing goal against AC Milan, will be a boost. Arijanet Muric was the goalkeeper for Sassuolo in their recent match against Milan [12]. However, the sheer number of injuries to key players across the squad will undoubtedly test Sassuolo’s depth and resilience. The absence of players like Cristian Volpato, Jay Idzes, and Ismael Koné could significantly impact their defensive stability and midfield control, making it difficult to contain Como’s in-form attack.
What it means
Como 1907 currently sits in 5th position in the Serie A table with 14 points from 7 games, boasting a strong record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their form of WDLWW indicates a team in excellent shape, scoring 12 goals and conceding only 7. This strong start to the season positions them well for European qualification. Their next fixture against US Sassuolo Calcio at home presents an opportunity to consolidate their top-five standing and continue their impressive run. A win would further cement their place among the league’s high-flyers and build momentum for future challenges.
US Sassuolo Calcio, on the other hand, is in 13th position with 8 points from 7 games, having secured 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Their form of LDLWD suggests inconsistency and struggles to find a winning rhythm, with 12 goals scored and 14 conceded. This places them in the lower mid-table, and a victory is crucial to distance themselves from the relegation zone and climb towards a more comfortable position. The upcoming match against a high-flying Como side, especially away from home and with numerous injuries, will be a significant test of their character and ability to grind out a result under pressure. A positive outcome could provide a much-needed morale boost and help them turn their season around.
Sources
- Football Italia: Del Piero praises Como’s Champions League debut: ‘The only Italian team to win’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Fabregas: ‘Como must perform every three days, in Serie A and Champions League’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Frosinone’s win over Como seen as ‘good sign for Italian football’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Ramon: Fabregas trying to improve Serie A, Como ‘changed my mindset’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Juventus, Milan and Como combine for fewer Italian minutes than Inter in Serie A football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Report Douvikas agrees new and improved Como contract football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Champions League: Feyenoord vs. Como – probable line-ups, where to watch on TV football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Gasperini: ‘Roma fans waited years, Real Madrid best in the world’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Sassuolo 1-1 Milan: Not enough for Rabiot to celebrate football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Report: Sassuolo considering Acerbi opportunity after Leysen injury football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Adzic: Muharemovic recommended Sassuolo, Spalletti did something I’m grateful for football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Aquilani impressed with Sassuolo ‘maturity’ in Milan draw football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Como’s Jesus Rodriguez follows Nico Paz onto Messi’s list of future stars football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A official line-ups: Fiorentina vs. Como football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Why it took so long for referees to rule Pongracic equaliser offside against Como football-italia.net ↩
