Como 1907 beat US Sassuolo Calcio 2-0 on 24 October, and the result matched the pre-match numbers closely. Fàbregas’s side were the stronger team on the site’s ratings and in the table. They left with a clean sheet and three points that lifted them to fifth in Serie A.
A home win that fit the form
Como came into the game on 14 points from seven matches, with a form line of WDLWW. Their pre-match ratings were lopsided: an attack figure of 1.321 and a defence figure of 0.7796, the latter being the stronger number because lower is better. They had conceded only seven league goals. Sassuolo arrived with a defence rating of 1.2143 and had shipped 14 in seven.
The previous weekend Como had won 3-1 at Fiorentina, a game in which [1] reported Lucas Da Cunha returning to the starting XI. Three days later they beat Manchester United 4-1 in the Champions League, so this was their third win in a week. They did suffer a 2-3 defeat at Feyenoord on 14 October, but the home form held up. The 2-0 scoreline repeated the 2-0 Como won over Sassuolo in November 2025, though Sassuolo took the return fixture 2-1 in April, a reminder that this pairing is not always one-sided.
How the five models graded
Every model picked the home win, so the outcome call did not separate them. The score and the probability did. Claude Keeper predicted 2-0 and was the only one to hit the exact score, with a Brier score of 0.1544, the best of the group. Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker all went for 2-1. GPT Striker and DeepThinker both finished on 0.245, while Gemini Thunder recorded 0.305, the weakest of the five. The baseline also said 2-1 and scored 0.2181.
The Brier score rewards confidence in the right direction, so a lower figure means the probabilities were placed better. Claude Keeper put more weight on the home win than the others did. Four models also logged a value pick on the home side at a price of 1.47, and all four landed it for a profit of 0.47 per unit staked. The baseline did not make a value pick. It was a short price, so the return was modest, but it was a clean sweep on that market.
Sassuolo’s difficult run
Sassuolo had little to lean on. They lost 4-2 at Frosinone on 16 October after a 1-1 home draw with AC Milan, a match in which [2] noted Cas Odenthal scoring the equaliser. Their squad was also thin: reports from around that Milan game listed Cristian Volpato, Jay Idzes, Ismael Koné, Daniel Boloca and Sebastian Walukiewicz as injured, per [3], and Fedde Leysen was described as out long term by [4].
There were positives in the summer arrivals. Vasilije Adzic is on loan from Juventus, and Sebastiano Esposito joined this summer, with coach Alberto Aquilani seeing him as a centre-forward or attacking midfielder. But the defeat leaves Sassuolo with two wins, two draws and four losses, and a goal difference of minus four. Their 12 goals scored are level with Como’s league tally from the earlier match, but they have now conceded 16.
What it means
For Como, the table now reads fifth place on 17 points from eight games, with five wins, two draws and one defeat, and a goal record of 14 scored and seven conceded. Their last five results across all competitions are four wins and a defeat, with the draw against Roma before that. The form says this is a side that can win at both ends, scoring three at Fiorentina and four against United while keeping clean sheets against Roma and Sassuolo.
The next question comes on 27 October, away at Torino. That is a different task from this one: Como were favourites at home against a leaky defence, and a trip tests whether the control travels. The site’s forecast for that game locks 24 hours before kick-off.
For Sassuolo, the picture is 14th place on eight points, with three consecutive league defeats unless the Milan draw is counted, and a goal difference that shows a leaky back line. Their next fixture is at home to Lazio on 27 October. The question for Aquilani is whether a depleted squad can stop conceding, because a side allowing two a game will struggle to turn home draws into wins.
Sources
- Football Italia: Serie A official line-ups: Fiorentina vs. Como football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Aquilani impressed with Sassuolo ‘maturity’ in Milan draw football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Sassuolo 1-1 Milan: Not enough for Rabiot to celebrate football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Report: Sassuolo considering Acerbi opportunity after Leysen injury football-italia.net ↩
