Leverkusen: a good start with a bad last result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen go into round 8 in fourth place with 13 points from seven games (four wins, one draw, two defeats). They have scored 16 and conceded 12, which fits a side that is entertaining but not airtight. The results bear that out: a 2-2 draw at Augsburg, a 2-0 home win over RB Leipzig, a 4-3 win at Mainz and a 2-1 win over Freiburg. Then came a 3-0 defeat at Hoffenheim on 25 October, the heaviest blow of their season.
Carles Martínez’s squad has a clear identity. [1] highlighted the Spanish and Argentinian contingent, including left-back Miguel Gutiérrez, who arrived from Napoli, and Facundo Medina, who signed a five-year deal from Marseille. Gutiérrez has [2] this season. Moussa Diaby also [3].
The main absence is Martin Terrier, who [4] suffered a thigh injury and will be out for weeks. Afonso Moreira was restored to the starting XI against Freiburg, so he is one to watch for a similar role here.
Stuttgart: injuries and a poor run
VfB Stuttgart arrive in 15th place with 6 points from seven matches. They have won two, lost five and drawn none, with 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. Their recent form reads loss, loss, win, loss, loss. They lost 1-0 at Hamburg, then 3-2 at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach on 23 October. The one win in that stretch was a 2-0 success at Paderborn, where, according to [5], Jeff Chabot scored the opener and Angelo Stiller assisted both goals.
Sebastian Hoeneß also has a long list of absentees. Dan-Axel Zagadou is [6], and Tiago Tomás and Nikolas Nartey were [7]. [8] reports that Josha Vagnoman is out for several weeks after being substituted against Atlético Madrid.
There are positives. Stuttgart have Champions League football, which brings extra games but also experience. Ermedin Demirovic has been a regular starter, and Bilal El Khannouss, whose loan from Leicester City [9], adds creativity.
Head to head and the numbers
The history is the best argument for Stuttgart. They won both meetings last season: 4-1 at the BayArena on 10 January and 3-1 at home on 9 May. That is seven goals scored against Leverkusen in two games, so any talk of a comfortable home win should be tempered.
Our ratings still favour the hosts. Leverkusen’s attack rating is 1.1949 against 1.1205 for Stuttgart, and the Poisson baseline projects expected goals of 2.28 for Leverkusen and 1.61 for Stuttgart. Both sides are expected to score. The baseline puts both teams scoring at 71.9% and more than 2.5 goals at 74.6%, so an open game is the likeliest outcome.
The baseline’s outcome probabilities are 52.8% for a Leverkusen win, 20.0% for a draw and 27.2% for a Stuttgart win. Its most likely scoreline is 2-1 to the home side, with 1-1 the most likely draw and 2-1 to Stuttgart the likeliest away result. Stuttgart’s 27.2% is far from negligible given what happened in this fixture last season.
What the forecasts say
The models agree on the scoreline. Claude Keeper, Kimi Cool, Gemini Thunder, GPT Striker and DeepThinker all predict 2-1 to Leverkusen, matching the baseline. They differ only on confidence. GPT Striker is the most bullish, giving the hosts 65%. Claude Keeper has 56%, Kimi Cool 58%, and Gemini Thunder and DeepThinker 55% each. The draw is rated between 18% and 25%.
The reasoning is consistent. The models point to Leverkusen’s home advantage, their higher league position and their more potent attack, set against Stuttgart’s injury list and poor run. Claude Keeper notes that Leverkusen’s recent loss at Hoffenheim does not outweigh those factors, while Kimi Cool describes Stuttgart as a side struggling near the relegation zone.
The risks are clear. Leverkusen lost 3-0 last time out and are missing Terrier, and Stuttgart have beaten them twice this year. If Stiller can again create chances for a settled attack, Stuttgart will not be easy to beat. Still, with the table, the ratings and the squad availability all favouring Leverkusen, a home win is the most probable result, and a game with goals at both ends is likely.
Sources
- Bundesliga.com: Bayer Leverkusen's Spanish-speaking reset under Carles Martínez bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Fantasy Team of the Season so far! bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Moussa Diaby on returning to Bayer Leverkusen, the fans and more bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Nächster Rückschlag: Pechvogel Terrier fehlt Leverkusen wochenlang kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Chris Führich seals it late as VfB Stuttgart beat spirited Paderborn bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bundesliga Matchday 8 probable teams bundesliga.com ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Why VfB Stuttgart will beat Atlético Madrid in the UEFA Champions League bundesliga.com ↩
- Kicker: Gegen Atletico ausgewechselt: Vagnoman fehlt Stuttgart vorerst kicker.de ↩
- Bundesliga.com: Bilal El Khannouss on playing in the UEFA Champions League, building on FIFA World Cup successes, and his Ballon d’Or favourites bundesliga.com ↩
