Team News and Recent Form
Newcastle United enter this fixture at St. James’ Park after a mixed start to their Premier League campaign. Their last league outing saw them suffer a 4-1 defeat away to Leeds United [1]. Prior to that, they secured a 2-2 draw at home against AFC Bournemouth, with Jacob Ramsey scoring a late equalizer [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/13565658/newcastle-2-2-bournemouth-jacob-ramsey-scores-late-equalis er-as-cherries-blow-another-lead). Newcastle have been active in the transfer market, bringing in players like Anthony Elanga, Amar Dedić, and Nico Gonzalez over the summer [2]. They also signed 18-year-old Sean Steur for $27m (£20m) [3] and Matias Fernandez-Pardo [4]. Lewis Hall also committed his long-term future to the club, rejecting interest from Manchester United [5]. However, Malick Thiaw, who scored an own goal against Bournemouth, is now out due to injury [6], and Nick Woltemade has left on loan to Juventus [6].
Hull City, managed by Sergej Jakirovic [7], have enjoyed an impressive start to their Premier League campaign, remaining unbeaten in their first four matches. Their recent form includes a 2-2 draw away to Chelsea [8] and a goalless draw at home against Aston Villa. They secured victories against Coventry City and Manchester United earlier in the season. Hull City’s squad has seen some changes, with Lucas Herrington joining from MLS side Colorado Rapids on a five-year deal [9]. Herrington replaced Nobel Mendy, who was injured in the clash with Manchester United and remains out [9]. Mohamed Belloumi, signed from OGC Nice in August 2026, made his first start in the EFL Cup defeat to Sunderland [10]. Konstantinos Tzolakis and Nobel Mendy were both record signings for Hull City this summer [11].
Predict.game Model Forecasts
The predict.game models offer a range of predictions for this Premier League clash. The baseline Poisson model suggests a 0-1 away win for Hull City, with probabilities of 31.5% for a home win, 26.2% for a draw, and 42.3% for an away win. This model calculates expected goals at 1.18 for Newcastle and 1.41 for Hull, indicating a slight offensive edge for the visitors. The most likely scoreline according to this model is 1-1, but the most likely score by outcome for an away win is 0-1.
In contrast, the Opus model forecasts a 2-0 home win for Newcastle, assigning a 63.0% probability to a home victory, 22.0% to a draw, and 15.0% to an away win. This model highlights Newcastle’s home advantage and recent squad investment, suggesting that Hull’s strong start might mask a weaker attacking output, especially with Nobel Mendy’s injury. Kimi-cool also leans towards a home win, predicting a 2-1 victory for Newcastle with a 58.0% probability, 24.0% for a draw, and 18.0% for an away win. This model acknowledges Newcastle’s defensive vulnerabilities but believes Hull’s small sample size and away status will tip the balance in favor of the home side.
Gemini-flash presents a more balanced view, predicting a 2-1 home win but with lower probabilities: 45.0% for a home win, 25.0% for a draw, and 30.0% for an away win. This model suggests that Hull City’s strong start and defensive solidity make them undervalued, implying a closer match than other models. Both GPT-striker and Deep-thinker align on a 2-1 home win for Newcastle, each giving a 55.0% probability for a home victory, 25.0% for a draw, and 20.0% for an away win. These models emphasize Newcastle’s home advantage and attacking strength as key factors in overcoming Hull’s solid defense.
What it means
Newcastle United currently sit in 12th position in the league table with 5 points from 4 games, having won 1, drawn 2, and lost 1. Their form of LDWD indicates a mixed bag of results, with a recent heavy defeat to Leeds United highlighting defensive concerns. Their next fixture against Hull City at St. James’ Park presents an opportunity to improve their standing and capitalize on their home advantage. The predict.game models generally favor a Newcastle win, suggesting they are expected to secure three points and potentially climb the table.
Hull City, on the other hand, are enjoying a strong start to the season, placed 4th with 8 points from 4 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses). Their unbeaten form of DDWW demonstrates their resilience and defensive solidity. This away fixture against Newcastle will be a significant test of their early-season form, especially without their injured goalscorer Nobel Mendy. Despite their strong start, the predict.game models are somewhat divided, with some predicting a narrow defeat for Hull, while others, like the baseline Poisson model, suggest they could still secure a draw or even an away win. This match will be crucial in determining whether Hull can maintain their impressive start against a strong Premier League opponent.
Sources
- BBC Sport: Calvert-Lewin stars but Botman struggles - player ratings for Leeds v Newcastle bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Newcastle were 'preparing for months' for Howe departure bbc.co.uk ↩
- The Guardian: How the search for younger players is driving the Premier League’s internal transfer market theguardian.com ↩
- Sky Sports: Newcastle chief: Summer was 'not chaotic' with Howe exit prepared for skysports.com ↩
- Sky Sports: Hall signs new deal at Newcastle after Man Utd interest skysports.com ↩
- Football Italia: Woltemade reveals Tonali’s one-word reaction to his Juventus transfer football-italia.net ↩
- BBC Sport: Hull City's masterplan to stop Chelsea's attack bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Hull City bbc.co.uk ↩
- The Guardian: Lucas Herrington staying grounded at Hull City despite meteoric rise: ‘It’s pretty crazy’ theguardian.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Hull City bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Hull City bbc.co.uk ↩
