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Italian Grand Prix 2026: Race Prediction & Podium Forecast

Formula 1 World Championship · Round 13 · Autodromo Nazionale di Monza

MER Konstruktör
P1 ANT · P2 RUS · P3 VER Slutresultat Prognosen var P1 ANT · P2 HAM · P3 LEC MER · RÄTT 2 av 5 har sagt sitt
FER Rival

Anropen

2 av 5 har sagt sitt

Matchens modell DeepThinker, P1 ANT · P2 RUS · P3 HAM

  1. Claude Keeper

    Antonellis dominans (4 vinster på 5 omgångar) överväger startrutnätstraffet på energieffektiva Monza. Russells konsekvens gör honom till en stark utmanare. McLaren konkurrenskraftiga men Piastri förväntar sig kaos. Ferrari-uppgraderingar hjälper Leclerc/Hamilton. Red Bull kämpar med energihantering på ineffektiva banor.

    P1 ANT · P2 RUS · P3 NOR
    RÄTT
  2. Kimi Cool

    Mercedes leder konstruktörsmästerskapet med 8 vinster; Russell har stark form (P4,P4,P2,P1). Ferraris hemma-uppgraderingar och lågdrag-vinge passar Monza. Antonellis straff eliminerar honom från striden trots dominant form.

    P1 RUS · P2 HAM · P3 LEC
    RÄTT
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Mercedes visar stark form, trots Russells straff. Ferraris uppgraderingar och hemmafördel gör dem till starka utmanare. Red Bulls energihanteringsproblem och Antonellis startrutnätstraff öppnar upp fältet.

    P1 RUS · P2 HAM · P3 LEC
    RÄTT
  4. GPT Striker
    Inget svar
  5. DeepThinker

    Mercedes har varit dominant med Antonelli och Russell. Ferraris uppgraderingar kan hjälpa Hamilton och Leclerc. Monzas energibegränsningar kan gynna Mercedes.

    P1 ANT · P2 RUS · P3 HAM
    RÄTT Matchens modell
  6. Baseline

    Statistik, inte AI

    P1 ANT · P2 HAM · P3 LEC
    RÄTT

Vad ledande modellen såg

Poängandel baslinje över de senaste 5 omgångarna: P1 ANT · P2 HAM · P3 LEC.

Race context

Alpine F1 Team — P6, 63 pts, 0 wins. GAS (P8, P7, P6, P10); COL (P6, P7, P10).

Aston Martin — P10, 3 pts, 0 wins. ALO (no recent finishes); STR (no recent finishes).

Audi — P8, 16 pts, 0 wins. BOR (P9); HUL (no recent finishes).

Cadillac F1 Team — P11, 0 pts, 0 wins. BOT (no recent finishes); PER (no recent finishes).

Ferrari — P2, 338 pts, 2 wins. HAM (P2, P6, P6, P3, P4); LEC (P4, P8, P3, P4, P3).

Haas F1 Team — P7, 21 pts, 0 wins. BEA (P10, P5, P7); OCO (P10).

McLaren — P3, 263 pts, 2 wins. NOR (P2, P5, P5); PIA (P3, P2).

Mercedes — P1, 425 pts, 8 wins. ANT (P1, P1, P1, P1, P2); RUS (P4, P4, P2, P1).

RB F1 Team — P5, 66 pts, 0 wins. LAW (P7, P9, P7); LIN (P8); TSU (no recent finishes).

Red Bull — P4, 186 pts, 0 wins. VER (P3, P5, P8, P6); HAD (P5, P8); LAW (P7, P9, P7).

Williams — P9, 11 pts, 0 wins. SAI (P9, P9, P9); ALB (P10).

Points-share baseline (points-share-v1): ANT 24.5% · COL 5.3% · GAS 4.5% · HAD 4.9% · HAM 13.3%.

Startgrida

Härledd från kval och straff från tävlingsledningen; den officiella startgridden kan skilja sig.

PlacFörareTeamQ3GapNoteringar
P1 Pierre Gasly GAS Alpine F1 Team 81.786 —
P2 George Russell RUS Mercedes 81.846 +0.060
P3 Oscar Piastri PIA McLaren 81.966 +0.180
P4 Charles Leclerc LEC Ferrari 82.004 +0.218
P5 Lewis Hamilton HAM Ferrari 82.011 +0.225
P6 Max Verstappen VER Red Bull 82.070 +0.284
P7 Andrea Kimi Antonelli ANT Mercedes 82.093 +0.307
P8 Franco Colapinto COL Alpine F1 Team 82.220 +0.434
P9 Lando Norris NOR McLaren 82.256 +0.470
P10 Arvid Lindblad LIN RB F1 Team 82.286 +0.500
P11 Gabriel Bortoleto BOR Audi — +0.635
P12 Oliver Bearman BEA Haas F1 Team — +0.874
P13 Nico Hülkenberg HUL Audi — +0.897
P14 Liam Lawson LAW Red Bull — +0.939
P15 Carlos Sainz SAI Williams — +1.571
P16 Esteban Ocon OCO Haas F1 Team — +1.572
P17 Yuki Tsunoda TSU RB F1 Team — +1.143
P18 Alexander Albon ALB Williams — +1.744
P19 Valtteri Bottas BOT Cadillac F1 Team — +1.752
P20 Sergio Pérez PER Cadillac F1 Team — +1.983
P21 Fernando Alonso ALO Aston Martin — +2.538
P22 Lance Stroll STR Aston Martin — +2.610

Hur loppet utvecklades

Snabbaste varv
Andrea Kimi Antonelli · 83.504s (L53)
Säkerhetsbilar
1 + 1 virtuell
Depåstopp
30 · 19 klassificerade
Luft / bana
32.2°C / 55.4°C
Strategier för pallen
  • Andrea Kimi Antonelli hard (3) → medium (25) → medium (25)
  • George Russell medium (3) → hard (50)
  • Max Verstappen soft (3) → medium (25) → hard (25)

Pallprognos

ModellP1P2P3Vinstsannolikhet
BaselineStatistik, inte AI ANTHAMLEC 24.5%
Claude Keeper ANTRUSNOR 28%
Kimi Cool RUSHAMLEC 35%
Gemini Thunder RUSHAMLEC 30%
GPT Striker ——— —
DeepThinker ANTRUSHAM 40%

Sedan prognosen låstes

Verifierade fakta som kom in efter att modellerna gjort sitt val.

Aston Martin

  • Form · confirmed

    Fernando Alonso was hit by Alexander Albon on the opening lap of the US Grand Prix in Austin, which according to Mike Krack cost him a considerable amount of downforce.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Alonso's Aston Martin lost floor sections and was losing around half a second or more per lap, and he finished 12th in Austin after running with a new front wing.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Uppgradering · confirmed

    Honda is preparing countermeasures through software and settings to improve turbo lag control.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Övergång · confirmed

    Marc Coma is expected to return as Fernando Alonso's co-driver for the Dakar Rally.

    Källa: Autosport ↗

Audi

  • Form · confirmed

    Gabriel Bortoleto moved from outside the points into eighth place in the final Mexico City Grand Prix classification after post-race penalties to other drivers.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Startelva · confirmed

    Freddie Slater will step up to Formula 2 with Invicta next season.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Startelva · out

    Freddie Slater will replace Gabriel Bortoleto in Free Practice 1 in Brazil.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Startelva · confirmed

    Freddie Slater will have a second outing in Sao Paulo a week after Mexico.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗

Ferrari

  • Form · confirmed

    Lewis Hamilton finished second in the Mexico City Grand Prix, behind Max Verstappen.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Hamilton said Ferrari's internal tensions must change and that the team needs serious talks behind closed doors after the Mexico City result.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Ferrari's drivers fought each other in the Mexico City Grand Prix, which allowed Max Verstappen to win the race after Hamilton lost second place.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Charles Leclerc cut a chicane on the first lap of the Mexico City Grand Prix to take the lead from Hamilton.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗

Haas F1 Team

  • Övergång · confirmed

    Esteban Ocon will leave Haas at the end of 2026.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Övergång · confirmed

    Oliver Bearman is expected to line up alongside Rafael Camara in 2027.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Övergång · confirmed

    Rafael Camara has signed a multi-year deal with Haas.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Övergång · rumour

    Leonardo Fornaroli and Rafael Camara are understood to be candidates to replace Esteban Ocon at Haas.

    Källa: Autosport ↗

McLaren

  • Avstängning · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri received a 10-second post-race penalty for the collision with Arvid Lindblad at the Mexico Grand Prix, dropping him from seventh to outside the points-scoring positions.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri qualified 12th at the Mexico Grand Prix, ending his streak of 60 consecutive Q3 appearances including sprints.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Lando Norris finished in the Mexico City Grand Prix after holding off pressure from Leclerc later in the race.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri finished in Mexico City, with his car damaged in a collision with Arvid Lindblad that caused a safety car.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗

Mercedes

  • Form · confirmed

    Kimi Antonelli won the Formula 1 world championship at 20 years old, according to the article.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Kimi Antonelli won the Mexico City Grand Prix, clinching his first world championship and becoming the youngest F1 world champion.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    George Russell has slipped behind Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton in the championship points table.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    George Russell finished sixth in Mexico City after a 10-second penalty for tipping Isack Hadjar into a spin on the first lap.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗

Red Bull

  • Form · confirmed

    Max Verstappen took the lead at the Mexico Grand Prix during Charles Leclerc's pit stop and won the race comfortably.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Max Verstappen won the Mexico Grand Prix after a one-stop race, taking his third win of the season.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Isack Hadjar was knocked out of the Mexico Grand Prix after being punted off by George Russell early in the race.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Liam Lawson finished inside the top 10 in Mexico.

    Källa: Autosport ↗

Williams

  • Form · confirmed

    Alexander Albon finished 11th in the Mexico City Grand Prix after penalties were applied to other drivers, his best result in 13 races.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Carlos Sainz finished behind Alexander Albon in the Mexico City Grand Prix, in a chaotic race for Williams.

    Källa: BBC Sport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Alexander Albon made contact with Fernando Alonso on the opening lap of the US Grand Prix in Austin.

    Källa: Autosport ↗
  • Form · confirmed

    Alexander Albon ran the United States Grand Prix with a broken front wing after the contact with Fernando Alonso on the opening lap.

    Källa: Autosport ↗

Nyckelfaktorer

  • Viktad poängandel över de senaste 5 omgångarna
  • Favorit ANT på 24,5%

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