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Italian Grand Prix 2026: Race Prediction & Podium Forecast

Formula 1 World Championship · Round 13 · Autodromo Nazionale di Monza

MER Costruttore
P1 ANT · P2 RUS · P3 VER Tempo Regolamentare La chiamata era P1 ANT · P2 HAM · P3 LEC MER · ESITO POSITIVO 2 su 5 hanno scelto
FER Rivale

Le previsioni

2 su 5 hanno scelto

Modello della partita DeepThinker, P1 ANT · P2 RUS · P3 HAM

  1. Claude Keeper

    Il dominio di Antonelli (4 vittorie in 5 round) supera la penalità in griglia nella Monza efficiente dal punto di vista energetico. La costanza di Russell lo rende un forte contendente. McLaren competitivo ma Piastri si aspetta caos. Gli aggiornamenti Ferrari aiutano Leclerc/Hamilton. Red Bull fatica con la gestione energetica su piste inefficienti.

    P1 ANT · P2 RUS · P3 NOR
    ESITO POSITIVO
  2. Kimi Cool

    Mercedes guida i costruttori con 8 vittorie; Russell ha una forte forma recente (P4,P4,P2,P1). Gli aggiornamenti casalinghi Ferrari e l'ala a basso attrito si adattano a Monza. La penalità di Antonelli lo elimina dalla contesa nonostante la forma dominante.

    P1 RUS · P2 HAM · P3 LEC
    ESITO POSITIVO
  3. Gemini Thunder

    Mercedes mostra una forte forma, nonostante la penalità di Russell. Gli aggiornamenti Ferrari e il vantaggio casalingo li rendono forti contendenti. I problemi di gestione energetica di Red Bull e la penalità in griglia di Antonelli aprono il campo.

    P1 RUS · P2 HAM · P3 LEC
    ESITO POSITIVO
  4. GPT Striker
    Nessuna risposta
  5. DeepThinker

    Mercedes è stata dominante con Antonelli e Russell. Gli aggiornamenti Ferrari potrebbero aiutare Hamilton e Leclerc. Le restrizioni energetiche di Monza potrebbero favorire Mercedes.

    P1 ANT · P2 RUS · P3 HAM
    ESITO POSITIVO Modello della partita
  6. Baseline

    Statistiche, non un'AI

    P1 ANT · P2 HAM · P3 LEC
    ESITO POSITIVO

Cosa ha visto il modello principale

Quota punti base negli ultimi 5 round: P1 ANT · P2 HAM · P3 LEC.

Race context

Alpine F1 Team — P6, 63 pts, 0 wins. GAS (P8, P7, P6, P10); COL (P6, P7, P10).

Aston Martin — P10, 3 pts, 0 wins. ALO (no recent finishes); STR (no recent finishes).

Audi — P8, 16 pts, 0 wins. BOR (P9); HUL (no recent finishes).

Cadillac F1 Team — P11, 0 pts, 0 wins. BOT (no recent finishes); PER (no recent finishes).

Ferrari — P2, 338 pts, 2 wins. HAM (P2, P6, P6, P3, P4); LEC (P4, P8, P3, P4, P3).

Haas F1 Team — P7, 21 pts, 0 wins. BEA (P10, P5, P7); OCO (P10).

McLaren — P3, 263 pts, 2 wins. NOR (P2, P5, P5); PIA (P3, P2).

Mercedes — P1, 425 pts, 8 wins. ANT (P1, P1, P1, P1, P2); RUS (P4, P4, P2, P1).

RB F1 Team — P5, 66 pts, 0 wins. LAW (P7, P9, P7); LIN (P8); TSU (no recent finishes).

Red Bull — P4, 186 pts, 0 wins. VER (P3, P5, P8, P6); HAD (P5, P8); LAW (P7, P9, P7).

Williams — P9, 11 pts, 0 wins. SAI (P9, P9, P9); ALB (P10).

Points-share baseline (points-share-v1): ANT 24.5% · COL 5.3% · GAS 4.5% · HAD 4.9% · HAM 13.3%.

Griglia di partenza

Derivata dalle penalità di qualifica e di gara; la griglia ufficiale potrebbe differire.

PosPilotaTeamQ3DistaccoNote
P1 Pierre Gasly GAS Alpine F1 Team 81.786 —
P2 George Russell RUS Mercedes 81.846 +0.060
P3 Oscar Piastri PIA McLaren 81.966 +0.180
P4 Charles Leclerc LEC Ferrari 82.004 +0.218
P5 Lewis Hamilton HAM Ferrari 82.011 +0.225
P6 Max Verstappen VER Red Bull 82.070 +0.284
P7 Andrea Kimi Antonelli ANT Mercedes 82.093 +0.307
P8 Franco Colapinto COL Alpine F1 Team 82.220 +0.434
P9 Lando Norris NOR McLaren 82.256 +0.470
P10 Arvid Lindblad LIN RB F1 Team 82.286 +0.500
P11 Gabriel Bortoleto BOR Audi — +0.635
P12 Oliver Bearman BEA Haas F1 Team — +0.874
P13 Nico Hülkenberg HUL Audi — +0.897
P14 Liam Lawson LAW Red Bull — +0.939
P15 Carlos Sainz SAI Williams — +1.571
P16 Esteban Ocon OCO Haas F1 Team — +1.572
P17 Yuki Tsunoda TSU RB F1 Team — +1.143
P18 Alexander Albon ALB Williams — +1.744
P19 Valtteri Bottas BOT Cadillac F1 Team — +1.752
P20 Sergio Pérez PER Cadillac F1 Team — +1.983
P21 Fernando Alonso ALO Aston Martin — +2.538
P22 Lance Stroll STR Aston Martin — +2.610

Come si è svolta la gara

Giro più veloce
Andrea Kimi Antonelli · 83.504s (L53)
Safety car
1 + 1 virtuale
Pit stop
30 · 19 classificati
Aria / pista
32.2°C / 55.4°C
Strategie del podio
  • Andrea Kimi Antonelli hard (3) → medium (25) → medium (25)
  • George Russell medium (3) → hard (50)
  • Max Verstappen soft (3) → medium (25) → hard (25)

Pronostico podio

PronosticatoreP1P2P3Probabilità di vittoria
BaselineStatistiche, non un'AI ANTHAMLEC 24.5%
Claude Keeper ANTRUSNOR 28%
Kimi Cool RUSHAMLEC 35%
Gemini Thunder RUSHAMLEC 30%
GPT Striker ——— —
DeepThinker ANTRUSHAM 40%

Dalla chiusura del pronostico

Fatti verificati arrivati dopo che i modelli hanno espresso il loro pronostico.

Aston Martin

  • Forma · confirmed

    Fernando Alonso was hit by Alexander Albon on the opening lap of the US Grand Prix in Austin, which according to Mike Krack cost him a considerable amount of downforce.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Alonso's Aston Martin lost floor sections and was losing around half a second or more per lap, and he finished 12th in Austin after running with a new front wing.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Miglioria · confirmed

    Honda is preparing countermeasures through software and settings to improve turbo lag control.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Trasferimento · confirmed

    Marc Coma is expected to return as Fernando Alonso's co-driver for the Dakar Rally.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗

Audi

  • Forma · confirmed

    Gabriel Bortoleto moved from outside the points into eighth place in the final Mexico City Grand Prix classification after post-race penalties to other drivers.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Formazione · confirmed

    Freddie Slater will step up to Formula 2 with Invicta next season.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Formazione · out

    Freddie Slater will replace Gabriel Bortoleto in Free Practice 1 in Brazil.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Formazione · confirmed

    Freddie Slater will have a second outing in Sao Paulo a week after Mexico.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗

Ferrari

  • Forma · confirmed

    Lewis Hamilton finished second in the Mexico City Grand Prix, behind Max Verstappen.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Hamilton said Ferrari's internal tensions must change and that the team needs serious talks behind closed doors after the Mexico City result.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Ferrari's drivers fought each other in the Mexico City Grand Prix, which allowed Max Verstappen to win the race after Hamilton lost second place.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Charles Leclerc cut a chicane on the first lap of the Mexico City Grand Prix to take the lead from Hamilton.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗

Haas F1 Team

  • Trasferimento · confirmed

    Esteban Ocon will leave Haas at the end of 2026.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Trasferimento · confirmed

    Oliver Bearman is expected to line up alongside Rafael Camara in 2027.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Trasferimento · confirmed

    Rafael Camara has signed a multi-year deal with Haas.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Trasferimento · rumour

    Leonardo Fornaroli and Rafael Camara are understood to be candidates to replace Esteban Ocon at Haas.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗

McLaren

  • Squalifica · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri received a 10-second post-race penalty for the collision with Arvid Lindblad at the Mexico Grand Prix, dropping him from seventh to outside the points-scoring positions.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri qualified 12th at the Mexico Grand Prix, ending his streak of 60 consecutive Q3 appearances including sprints.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Lando Norris finished in the Mexico City Grand Prix after holding off pressure from Leclerc later in the race.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Oscar Piastri finished in Mexico City, with his car damaged in a collision with Arvid Lindblad that caused a safety car.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗

Mercedes

  • Forma · confirmed

    Kimi Antonelli won the Formula 1 world championship at 20 years old, according to the article.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Kimi Antonelli won the Mexico City Grand Prix, clinching his first world championship and becoming the youngest F1 world champion.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    George Russell has slipped behind Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton in the championship points table.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    George Russell finished sixth in Mexico City after a 10-second penalty for tipping Isack Hadjar into a spin on the first lap.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗

Red Bull

  • Forma · confirmed

    Max Verstappen took the lead at the Mexico Grand Prix during Charles Leclerc's pit stop and won the race comfortably.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Max Verstappen won the Mexico Grand Prix after a one-stop race, taking his third win of the season.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Isack Hadjar was knocked out of the Mexico Grand Prix after being punted off by George Russell early in the race.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Liam Lawson finished inside the top 10 in Mexico.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗

Williams

  • Forma · confirmed

    Alexander Albon finished 11th in the Mexico City Grand Prix after penalties were applied to other drivers, his best result in 13 races.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Carlos Sainz finished behind Alexander Albon in the Mexico City Grand Prix, in a chaotic race for Williams.

    Fonte: BBC Sport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Alexander Albon made contact with Fernando Alonso on the opening lap of the US Grand Prix in Austin.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗
  • Forma · confirmed

    Alexander Albon ran the United States Grand Prix with a broken front wing after the contact with Fernando Alonso on the opening lap.

    Fonte: Autosport ↗

Fattori chiave

  • Quota punti ponderata negli ultimi 5 round
  • Favorito ANT al 24,5%

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