Match Preview
Athletic Club is set to host Deportivo Alavés in a highly anticipated Basque derby at San Mamés. The home side, under coach Edin Terzić, who is reportedly satisfied with his role at the club [1], will be looking to build on their recent performances. Athletic Club has shown a mixed bag of results lately, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five league matches. Notably, they secured a convincing 3-0 home victory against Club Atlético de Madrid and a 2-0 away win against RC Celta de Vigo. Their last outing saw them draw 1-1 at home against Elche CF. Key players like Robert Navarro and Nico Williams have been in scoring form, with Navarro scoring after an assist from Iñaki Williams and Nico Williams returning to scoring in the league [2]. However, Athletic Club will be without Vivian and Guruzeta due to injury [3], and Unai Simón will also be unavailable. Youngsters Álex Padilla and Álvaro Djaló, despite limited playing time, have been called up to their respective national teams [4].
Deportivo Alavés, led by coach Quique Sanchez Flores, faces a challenging fixture. They have had a tougher run of form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Their recent results include consecutive losses to Valencia CF (1-0) and Real Racing Club de Santander (2-1). Earlier in the season, they secured a significant 5-2 victory over CA Osasuna [5]. Alavés has been proactive in maintaining squad stability, prioritizing key players like Blanco, Toni Martínez, Boyé, and Sivera [6]. However, they are significantly hampered by injuries, with Mikel Rodríguez, Aitor Mañas, and Facundo Garcés all sidelined [7]. Toni Martínez, who was previously out with a soleus injury, came on in the second half of their match against Real Racing Club de Santander, indicating a potential return to fitness [8]. Nicolás Valentini’s recent performance has also been noted for a defensive error [8].
Head-to-Head and Form Analysis
The historical encounters between these two Basque rivals suggest a competitive fixture, though recent results lean towards Athletic Club. In their last two meetings, Athletic Club secured a 4-2 away victory in May 2026, and a 1-0 home win in September 2025. This head-to-head record provides Athletic Club with a psychological edge coming into this match. Athletic Club’s current form, with 7 points from 5 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), places them 9th in the league. They have scored 7 goals and conceded 6. Their home form includes a draw against Elche and a win against Atlético Madrid. The suspension of their match against Levante UD means they have played one less game than some rivals [9].
Deportivo Alavés, currently 6th in the league with 10 points from 6 games (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), has scored 11 goals and conceded 6. Despite their higher league position, their recent form (LLWWD) shows a dip, particularly with two consecutive losses. The absence of key defensive players due to injury could further impact their ability to contain Athletic Club’s attack. The fact that coach Quique Sanchez Flores is debuting in a derby match adds another layer of intrigue to Alavés’ preparation [10]. The focus for Alavés will be on how their remaining squad members, including Lucas Boyé and Mariano Díaz who started in a recent match [8], step up to fill the gaps created by injuries.
Predicted Outcomes
All prediction models are in strong agreement, forecasting a home win for Athletic Club. The baseline Poisson model suggests a 42.4% chance for a home victory, with a most likely score of 1-1, but a most likely home win score of 2-1. Opus, Gemini-Flash, GPT-Striker, and Deep-Thinker all align on a 2-1 home win, with probabilities ranging from 50% to 58% for Athletic Club. These models consistently highlight Athletic Club’s strong home record, better recent form, and the significant impact of Alavés’ defensive injuries as key factors. The consensus among the models is that Athletic Club’s attacking threat, combined with Alavés’ weakened defense, will be decisive. The expected goals for Athletic Club are 1.603 compared to 1.4 for Alavés, further supporting the home side’s offensive advantage. The probability of both teams scoring is estimated at 60.2%, and over 2.5 goals at 57.7%, indicating a potentially open and high-scoring affair despite the predicted 2-1 scoreline.
What it means
Athletic Club, currently 9th with 7 points from 5 games, has a chance to climb the table with a win against Alavés. Their recent form of DWWLL suggests an upward trend after a shaky start, and a home victory would solidify their position in the top half. For Deportivo Alavés, sitting 6th with 10 points from 6 games, a loss would mean a third consecutive defeat, potentially dropping them down the standings and highlighting the impact of their injury crisis. A win, however, would be a significant morale boost and demonstrate their resilience. The next fixture for Athletic Club is yet to be determined due to a prior suspension, while Alavés will need to regroup quickly regardless of the outcome of this derby.
Sources
- Marca: Terzic: "Estoy feliz de encontrar un lugar único para trabajar y vivir" marca.com ↩
- Marca: El Athletic repite hoja de ruta y sentencia en un puñado de segundos marca.com ↩
- Marca: Athletic - Elche | La alegría vive en menos de 18 metros cuadrados: previa, análisis, pronóstico y predicción marca.com ↩
- Marca: Padilla y Djaló recuperan plaza en sus selecciones pese a no tener minutos marca.com ↩
- Marca: Quique exprime el olfato de sus delanteros marca.com ↩
- Marca: El mejor Alavés de la historia marca.com ↩
- Marca: Alavés - Valencia: horario y dónde ver hoy en TV el partido de la jornada 6 de LaLiga EA Sports marca.com ↩
- Marca: El Alavés baja a la tierra en Santander marca.com ↩
- Marca: Suspendido el Levante-Athletic marca.com ↩
- Marca: Terzic: "Es un derbi, pero las porterías están en el mismo sitio y miden igual" marca.com ↩
