Carrick stays, but the run is stark
Manchester United go to Chelsea on Saturday with Michael Carrick still in the dugout, though his position has looked fragile. [1] reports that the club decided to keep him after widespread expectations that he would be dismissed earlier in the week. [2] adds that he is expected to be in charge at Chelsea, and likely for the Champions League match against Roma and the league game with Aston Villa.
The results explain the pressure. United lost 4-1 away to Como in the Champions League, then went down 3-0 at home to Bournemouth, which [3] describes as extending their worst-ever Premier League start. They have not won any of their last eight games across all competitions, according to [4].
Speculation about a successor continues, though none of it is confirmed. [5] reports that the hierarchy have explored options including Eddie Howe and Julian Nagelsmann. Football Italia says nothing is advanced with Antonio Conte, who has also been linked. No appointment has been made, and Carrick has said he does not need assurances about his long-term future.
Fernandes and the tactical questions
The sharpest talking point is Bruno Fernandes. He was left on the bench against Bournemouth after criticising the tactics following the Como defeat. [5] says he has since held talks with Carrick to clear the air. Carrick has said there are no issues, that Fernandes is fully committed, and that there is no decision to be made on the captaincy.
Whether Fernandes starts at Stamford Bridge is not certain. [6] expects him back in the starting lineup, while other reports treat his return as unconfirmed. The picture is a likely return rather than a settled one.
The tactical concerns run deeper than one selection. [7] highlights problems in pressing and defensive shape. It notes that United have spent only 56.5 minutes in a high defensive compactness structure this season, the 18th-lowest in the Premier League. A side that struggles to stay compact is exposed when opponents attack the space behind a stretched midfield, and the Como and Bournemouth scorelines fit that description.
Injuries thin the squad
The team news is poor. According to [8], Patrick Dorgu (hamstring) is out until 22 November, and Manuel Ugarte (knee) has no known return date. Benjamin Šeško is out with a shin problem until January, and [9] says he is ruled out for an extended period.
Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo, Lisandro Martínez and Luke Shaw are all doubtful for Chelsea, with match fitness the question in each case. If several miss out, Carrick will have to rebuild the midfield and the back line at the same time, which is hard for a team already short of defensive structure.
With Šeško out, the forward line is also a concern. The same BBC report says United are looking at a forward in January and had been linked with Leeds striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is reportedly set to sign a new Leeds contract. That is a rumour with low confidence, but it shows where the club sees the gap.
What it means
United are 16th in the Premier League with 7 points from 8 games (one win, four draws, three defeats), with 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. The recent form is poor: Bournemouth 0-3 at home, Como 1-4 away in the Champions League, a 1-1 draw at Leeds, a 0-2 loss at Atlético Madrid and a 1-1 draw with Tottenham. That is one point from the last three league games and no wins in the five matches listed.
The next fixture asks a plain question: can Carrick stabilise the shape without his full squad? Chelsea v Man United is on 31 October, and the site’s forecast makes Chelsea favourites, with probabilities of 52% for a home win, 26% for a draw and 22% for a United win. The predicted score is 2-1. That reads as a close contest in which United’s defensive problems tip the balance rather than a heavy defeat.
A draw would at least stop the slide, and the forecast leaves room for one. Anything better would ease the pressure on Carrick. Another defeat would make the speculation about his replacement much harder to dismiss.
Sources
- BBC Sport: 'I don't need any assurances' bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: 'Fully committed' Fernandes to remain Man Utd captain bbc.co.uk ↩
- Sky Sports: Carrick ready to 'move forward' with Fernandes as captain skysports.com ↩
- Football Italia: The differences between Spalletti and Carrick amid Conte speculation football-italia.net ↩
- BBC Sport: Sometimes managers need sacking for own good - Neville bbc.co.uk ↩
- The Guardian: Premier League: 10 things to look out for this weekend theguardian.com ↩
- Sky Sports: Carrick's last chance? The fixes Man Utd may need at Chelsea skysports.com ↩
- The Guardian: Premier League team news: predicted lineups for the weekend action theguardian.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Calvert-Lewin set for new Leeds deal bbc.co.uk ↩
