Round nine of Serie A brings together two of the league’s most struggling sides. Parma host Udinese at the Stadio Ennio Tardini on 28 October (17:30 UTC), and the table says it all: Parma are 19th and Udinese 17th, both on four points from one win and one draw.
Two struggling sides, two different kinds of trouble
Parma’s record on the sheet is eight played, one win, one draw and six defeats, with five goals scored and 15 conceded. Their form string reads LLLWL. The lone win was a 2-1 home victory over Genoa on 20 September. Since then they have lost 3-0 at Inter, 3-0 at home to Torino and 2-1 at Lazio. Against Lazio, Simone Lontani scored the only Parma goal, and [1] reported that Parma conceded far too easily in that game.
Udinese’s slump is longer. Their form is LLLLL, and the sequence includes a 5-3 defeat at Inter, a 1-0 home loss to Cagliari, a 2-1 defeat at Torino, a 3-0 home loss to Lecce and a 2-0 home loss to AC Milan on 25 October. They have scored nine and conceded 18. [2] reported that the club are backing coach Kosta Runjaić despite the start, which it described as disastrous.
One note on the data: the context sheet lists Carlos Cuesta as Parma’s coach, but the sourced reports describe Alberto Gilardino as the current manager. Whoever is in the dugout, the problem is the same. Parma have scored the fewest goals of the two sides and conceded the fewer of the two only by a small margin.
Absences and selection questions
Both teams are thin. For Parma, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia was [3] for the Torino game, and the [4] lists Pontus Almqvist on the absentee list and Nesta Elphege out after appendicitis. Adrián Bernabé was rested against Lazio because of a recent injury and the schedule, so his availability is worth watching, though the input does not confirm it.
Udinese’s list is longer. Jakub Piotrowski needs heart surgery to correct a benign arrhythmia and was expected to be out for around two months, [5] on 8 September. James Abankwah was [6]. Jurgen Ekkelenkamp was [7] and was expected to miss the following match. The club is also still waiting for several players to return from injury.
There are small positives. David Alaba, who joined as a free agent on a deal until June 2027, made his debut as a substitute at Torino, and Oumar Solet returned to the squad and showed his importance. Whether either starts is not confirmed in the input.
What the numbers and the models say
The Poisson baseline, built from recorded results, projects expected goals of 1.10 for Parma and 1.34 for Udinese. It gives Udinese a 42.4% chance of winning, Parma 30.5% and a draw 27.1%. The most likely single score is 1-1, but the most likely score within an Udinese win is 1-0 to the visitors. The baseline puts both teams scoring at 49.2% and over 2.5 goals at 44.0%.
The team ratings explain the gap. Udinese’s attack rating is 0.93 against Parma’s 0.69, while the defence ratings are almost identical at 1.19 for each side. That points to Udinese having the more reliable route to a goal, with little to separate the back lines.
The head-to-head record does not settle it. Parma won 1-0 away at Udinese on 18 April, and Udinese won 2-0 at Parma on 29 November 2025. That is one win each, both on the road.
The five AI predictions split. Claude Keeper picks 0-1 (40% Udinese), Kimi Cool 1-2 (40%) and GPT Striker 1-2 (45%), all citing the better Udinese attack. Gemini Thunder and DeepThinker both go for a 1-0 Parma win, pointing to home advantage and Udinese’s poor form, suspension and injuries. Three away wins to two home wins matches the baseline’s lean, though no model is confident.
What it means
For Parma, 19th with four points and five goals in eight games, this is a chance to stop a slide of three straight defeats. Scoring is the issue, since they have managed more than one goal in only one league game on the list. A home match against another struggling side is about as good an opening as the fixture list offers.
For Udinese, 17th and five games without a point, the picture is similar. They have the better attack rating, but they have conceded 18 and just lost two straight at home without scoring. A first away result in a while would ease pressure on Runjaić.
The models see a narrow game. The baseline’s 42.4% for Udinese is a lean rather than a verdict, and with 27.1% on a draw, a low-scoring result in either direction is the most natural outcome.
Sources
- Football Italia: Gilardino: ‘Parma conceded far too easily, but must keep positive attitude’ football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Udinese back Runjaic despite disastrous start to the season football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Parma 0-3 Torino: Simeone double spoils Gilardino’s Tardini bow football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Lazio 2-1 Parma: Eagles keep flying high in top spot football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: After McTominay, Udinese player Piotrowski also needs heart surgery football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Torino 2-1 Udinese: Kulenovic punishes Okoye error to snatch 3 points football-italia.net ↩
- Football Italia: Serie A | Udinese 0-3 Lecce: Runjaic falls to five straight defeats football-italia.net ↩
