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Matchday Intelligence Ferrari · Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 07:03 UTC

Ferrari Lead Mexico City Practice, but Hamilton's Breakdown Raises Questions

Leclerc topped both Mexico City practice sessions for Ferrari, but Hamilton's technical stoppage clouds a weekend with second place at stake.

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In short

  • Leclerc topped FP1 by 0.659s and FP2 by 0.103s, a clear start to the Mexico City weekend.
  • Hamilton stopped at the Turn 3 exit in FP2 after losing power and never finished his long-run simulation.
  • Russell has reportedly tipped Ferrari as favourites because of their smaller turbo, though the source confidence is low.

Leclerc sets the Friday standard

Ferrari could hardly have asked for a better opening day in Mexico City. Charles Leclerc was fastest in the first session with a 1m18.128s, [1] reports, 0.659s clear of Kimi Antonelli. That is a large margin for a single practice session, even allowing for the usual uncertainty about fuel loads and engine modes on a Friday.

He then repeated the result in the afternoon. According to [2], Leclerc’s 1m17.827s in FP2 was 0.103s quicker than Lando Norris, with George Russell third. The gap shrank from the morning, which suggests the McLaren and Mercedes cars found more once the track evolved and teams moved to more representative running. Even so, topping both sessions at a circuit where the air is thin and the cars behave unusually is a meaningful statement of intent.

The lap time improvement of roughly three tenths between sessions is also worth noting. It came on a track that typically gains grip as rubber goes down, so it does not by itself show Ferrari found anything special. What it does show is that Leclerc was comfortable enough in the car to push hard on both days. Whether that carries into qualifying will depend on how the others turn up their engines when it matters.

Hamilton’s stoppage is the concern

The picture was less comfortable on the other side of the garage. Lewis Hamilton finished FP1 fourth, 0.738s off the pace, according to [1]. That is a solid if unspectacular start, and about what a driver might hope for while still building up the weekend.

FP2 went wrong. [2] reports that Hamilton lost power down the main straight and stopped at the Turn 3 exit, ending his session. [3] adds that he described a technical problem and missed his long-run simulation.

That last detail matters more than the retirement itself. Long runs are where teams learn about tyre degradation and race pace, and Hamilton now goes into Saturday without that data from his own car. Ferrari will have Leclerc’s information to lean on, but the two cars are not always identical in setup. The input does not say what caused the failure or whether any component change or penalty follows, so nothing should be assumed about the severity until the team says more.

Altitude, turbos and the favourites tag

Mexico City is an unusual test under the 2026 regulations. [4] examines how the removal of the MGU-H and the changes to active aerodynamics affect turbo lag and downforce at high altitude. Thin air forces the turbo to work harder, so the layout of the power unit matters more here than at most venues.

In that context, the same report says Russell pointed to Ferrari as favourites because the team is widely known to run a smaller turbo than many rivals. That claim should be treated cautiously: it is one driver’s view, and the underlying fact carries only modest confidence in our records. But Friday’s times do not contradict it.

The Red Bull situation adds another variable. [1] notes that Isack Hadjar’s car suffered power-unit problems early in FP1 and that Ayumu Iwasa drove in place of Max Verstappen in that session. Later, [3] reports that Verstappen and Liam Lawson each received a one-place grid penalty for a side-on collision in practice, with stewards finding both at fault. Those are small grid effects, but they slightly thin the field of rivals around Ferrari.

What it means

The site’s own records list Ferrari second in the Formula 1 World Championship with 474 points from 18 rounds played. That is a strong position, and Friday’s results fit it: Ferrari have the quickest car on current evidence at a circuit that is hard to read.

The individual battle is tighter. [5] reports that Hamilton, who won the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix in June, is third in the drivers’ championship, one point behind Russell, and that Leclerc is eight points behind Hamilton. The same article says Antonelli is poised to clinch his first world title this weekend, so the fight that remains is for second place. A Ferrari driver finishing ahead of Russell would help that cause.

That is why Hamilton’s lost long run is more than an inconvenience. Leclerc has the pace and the momentum, but Hamilton has the stronger points position and now has less preparation behind him. The question for Saturday is whether Ferrari can fix whatever caused the fault and put both cars at the front of the grid. The input includes no next-fixture forecast, so the weekend itself is the test: pace is there, and reliability is the open issue.

Sources

  1. Autosport: F1 Mexico GP: Leclerc beats Antonelli to top FP1 motorsport.com ↩
  2. Autosport: F1 Mexico GP: Leclerc pips McLaren and Mercedes to top FP2 autosport.com ↩
  3. BBC Sport: Verstappen and Lawson given grid penalties for Mexico practice collision bbc.co.uk ↩
  4. Autosport: Why F1 teams and manufacturers face more unknowns in Mexico than ever motorsport.com ↩
  5. BBC Sport: F1 has never had anyone like me - Hamilton bbc.co.uk ↩

Written by predict.game's models from the sources listed. How our content is made →

  1. Ferrari's Mexico pole: Hamilton ends the wait as Leclerc lines up thirdMatchday Intelligence, 2 Nov
  2. Mexico City Grand Prix: Verstappen wins, Hamilton second, and no model called itTransfers & Contracts, 2 Nov
  3. Ferrari Lead Mexico City Practice, but Hamilton's Breakdown Raises QuestionsMatchday Intelligence, 1 Nov
  4. Mexico City GP preview: Hamilton on pole, but Leclerc and Antonelli have the paceTransfers & Contracts, 31 Oct