Mexico City GP preview: Hamilton on pole, but Leclerc and Antonelli have the pace

Hamilton takes pole, Mercedes right behind

Lewis Hamilton starts the Mexico City Grand Prix from pole position after a Q3 lap of 1m16.514s. George Russell was 0.009s behind in second, so Mercedes’ pace is not in doubt. Charles Leclerc starts third, 0.119s off the top, with Max Verstappen fourth at 0.178s and Kimi Antonelli fifth at 0.193s. Lando Norris is sixth, 0.310s from pole.

The championship context favours the front row. Mercedes lead the constructors’ table with 607 points and 12 wins, ahead of Ferrari on 474 with two wins. Hamilton arrives with a question mark, though. He stopped on track with a technical problem during Friday practice and did not complete his long-run simulation, ^[1] reported. His FP2 shows only 13 laps and no long-run figure, so we have little race-trim evidence for the driver on pole.

Verstappen’s grid slot also needs a caveat. ^[2] reported that he and Liam Lawson each received a one-place grid penalty and a superlicence penalty point after a clash in Friday practice. The weekend sheet lists no penalties, so his fourth place may be the pre-penalty position.

What practice says about race pace

Leclerc was the Friday headline. He topped both sessions, and in the timed session he was 0.103s ahead of Norris, according to ^[1]. His FP2 best of 1m17.827s was the quickest lap of the weekend until qualifying.

The long runs are less clear-cut. In FP2, the session with the most comparable data, Antonelli’s long-run pace was 81.791s, Hadjar’s 81.837s, Gasly’s 81.849s and Verstappen’s 81.963s. Leclerc’s was 83.333s, Norris’s 83.388s and Russell’s 83.078s. On that evidence Leclerc is quicker over one lap than over a stint, while Antonelli and Verstappen look stronger on a race run. In FP3, Antonelli’s long-run figure of 80.607s was again the best among the clearly comparable runs.

Mercedes’ own situation is mixed. ^[3] reported that both cars ran new upgrades in the United States, a package that has been hard to set up since its introduction in Malaysia. Toto Wolff has said the W17’s operating window is very narrow and that the team must adapt the car to suit Russell, according to ^[4]. Russell starts second, so the setup question matters on Sunday.

McLaren, Red Bull and the rest of the order

McLaren have a gap to close. They are on a four-round podiumless run, their worst since late 2023 and early 2024, and Andrea Stella has said qualifying must improve, ^[5] reported. Norris starts sixth, but Oscar Piastri is only 13th after being fourth fastest in FP3, with 10th in FP2 after a red flag and aborted laps. The team brought the first stage of its final upgrade package to Austin, and both cars have shown more speed than the grid suggests.

Red Bull sit fourth in the constructors’ table on 352 points. Verstappen won in Malaysia and Singapore and took second in Austin. Isack Hadjar starts seventh, with Lawson eighth. Further back, Aston Martin are tenth in the standings with 7 points, and Fernando Alonso starts 18th. He was hit by Alexander Albon on the opening lap in Austin, which Mike Krack said cost him a considerable amount of downforce, ^[6] reported. Honda has also struggled for performance and reliability this year.

How the six forecasts see the podium

Our baseline model, which combines form over the last five rounds with a grid-slot prior, picks Hamilton, Verstappen and Leclerc. It gives Hamilton 23% to win, Verstappen 19.1% and Leclerc 18.7%. Antonelli is on 14.7% and Russell on 10.6%.

The five AI predictors split along familiar lines:

• Claude Keeper: Hamilton, Leclerc, Antonelli.
• Kimi Cool: Leclerc, Verstappen, Antonelli.
• Gemini Thunder: Antonelli, Verstappen, Russell.
• GPT Striker: Hamilton, Russell, Leclerc.
• DeepThinker: Hamilton, Russell, Leclerc.

Hamilton is the pick to win in four of the six forecasts, counting the baseline. Leclerc appears on the podium in five. Verstappen, Russell and Antonelli each appear in three. The main disagreement is whether pole and Mercedes’ front-row lock outweigh Hamilton’s missing long-run data, and how much weight to give Verstappen’s penalty against his race pace. Each forecast will be graded against the result, so Sunday will show which reading of Friday was right.

Sources

1. BBC Sport: Verstappen and Lawson given grid penalties for Mexico practice collision bbc.co.uk ↩
2. Autosport: Stewards penalize Verstappen, Lawson after “unacceptable” F1 Mexico GP practice clash autosport.com ↩
3. BBC Sport: How much of Antonelli's success is down to his ability? - F1 Q&A bbc.co.uk ↩
4. Autosport: Mercedes has a Russell-sized problem and it is sharing responsibility autosport.com ↩
5. Autosport: Why being "very adaptive" gave Norris the edge over Piastri at US GP motorsport.com ↩
6. Autosport: Alonso doubles down on poor F1 driving standards – and says those targeted know who they are motorsport.com ↩