The iconic Autodromo Nazionale Monza is set to host the 2026 Italian Grand Prix, with Ferrari and McLaren emerging as key contenders for the podium. Ferrari arrives at their home circuit armed with significant upgrades, including a refined low-drag rear wing and a second permitted engine upgrade [1]. Lewis Hamilton, expected to race for Ferrari [2], has expressed concerns that Ferrari is still behind Mercedes on straights [3]. Charles Leclerc also forms part of the Ferrari lineup [4].
McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are also strong contenders. Piastri was recently promoted to fourth place following a court of appeal decision [3]. Both drivers are expected to race for McLaren [2]. Piastri anticipates a chaotic race at Monza due to the track being energy-starved [5], with differing approaches to energy deployment and harvesting leading to ‘yo-yo racing’ where overtaking is influenced by battery levels [5]. Hamilton also noted that cars will arrive at corners approximately 20-30 km/h slower than in the past at Monza due to power unit regulations [6].
Podium Forecasts
The baseline model predicts a podium of Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, and Lando Norris, with Hamilton having a 33% chance of winning. The Opus model also places Hamilton first, followed by Leclerc and Piastri, citing Hamilton’s experience and Leclerc’s benefit from Ferrari’s upgrades. Gemini-Flash forecasts Hamilton, Norris, and Leclerc, highlighting Ferrari’s home advantage and McLaren’s consistent performance.
Conversely, the gpt-striker model favors Charles Leclerc for the win, followed by Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, suggesting Hamilton’s concerns about straight-line speed might hinder his chances. Deep-thinker also predicts Leclerc to win, with Hamilton in second and Norris in third, emphasizing Ferrari’s upgrades and home advantage while acknowledging McLaren’s strong form and Monza’s unpredictable energy challenges.
Sources
- Autosport: F1 Italian GP: Leclerc heads Ferrari 1-2 in opening practice autosport.com ↩
- BBC Sport: How to follow Italian Grand Prix on the BBC bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: FIA appeal court refutes Briatore impartiality claim bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Antonelli 'disrupting rules of fandom' in Ferrari's Italy bbc.co.uk ↩
- Autosport: Why Monza, F1's "Temple of Speed", could be slower than the Hungaroring motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: What drivers expect from F1's low-battery racing at Monza motorsport.com ↩