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Matchday Intelligence Ferrari · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 at 13:04 UTC

Ferrari after Austin: Leclerc's podium, Hamilton's fourth and what Mexico City asks

Ferrari left the United States Grand Prix with a Leclerc podium and Hamilton fourth, while Antonelli's title charge heads to Mexico City.

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In short

  • Leclerc finished second in the United States Grand Prix after qualifying fourth and passing Lando Norris and Max Verstappen late on.
  • Hamilton finished fourth after Ferrari chose a two-stop strategy, having been fastest in final practice.
  • Kimi Antonelli leads by 123 points and can clinch the title in Mexico City with a ninth-place finish or better.

Austin: a podium and a fourth place

Ferrari left the United States Grand Prix with one car on the podium and one just off it. Kimi Antonelli won from pole for Mercedes, and [1] reports Charles Leclerc second and Max Verstappen third. Lewis Hamilton was fourth, with Lawson ninth and Russell eighth after a five-second penalty in the same report.

Leclerc’s result is the headline. He qualified fourth, so second place meant gaining positions on Sunday rather than inheriting them. The same report credits him with late passes on Lando Norris and Verstappen, which suggests he had pace in hand at the end of the race. One BBC preview piece words his result more loosely, describing him as third-placed on the podium. The race report and its confirmed note both say second, so that is the result used here.

Hamilton’s weekend was good without paying off. He was fastest in final practice and narrowly behind Leclerc in qualifying, according to [1]. Fourth is a solid return, but it also shows the gap between a strong Saturday and a podium.

Strategy and the late passes

The notable detail from Austin is strategy. [1] says Ferrari committed to a two-stop strategy for Hamilton, who finished fourth. The input does not say how Leclerc’s race was split, so no claim is made about his stops. What it does say is that he made late passes on Norris and Verstappen. Passes that late usually come from a tyre or pace advantage over the cars ahead, though the input does not explain the cause.

The result still points to a car that is quick over a single lap and competitive in race trim. Hamilton was fastest in final practice and close to Leclerc in qualifying. Leclerc then turned a fourth-place grid slot into second. That is a useful profile heading into a run of races where Ferrari are fighting for position rather than the win.

Caution is needed on what the input does not give. There is no word on upgrades, penalties or driver changes for Ferrari. A [2] preview of the Mexico City Grand Prix, round 19, explicitly carries no injury, penalty, upgrade or driver-change news for the team. Ferrari go into the next round, as far as the sources show, with an unchanged line-up and no known sanctions.

The title picture around Ferrari

The championship story belongs to Mercedes. [3] reports that Antonelli leads George Russell by 123 points after winning from pole in Austin. He can clinch the title in Mexico City by finishing ninth or higher. Ferrari’s drivers are not part of that arithmetic, but they could influence how the weekend unfolds.

The same report quotes team principal Toto Wolff saying Russell struggled to find the right set-up on the car with the new upgrade package in Austin. That matters for Ferrari because Mercedes’ second car has recently been the weaker of the two. If that continues, Ferrari have an opening to take points from the Silver Arrows in the races that remain.

For Leclerc and Hamilton, the aim is to finish ahead of whichever Mercedes is behind Antonelli. A result like Austin’s, second and fourth, pushes the team’s tally up while the title fight is settled elsewhere. The BBC preview confirms Antonelli’s 123-point lead and the Mexico City round as the next test.

What it means

Ferrari’s own records place them second in the Formula 1 World Championship on 474 points from 18 rounds played. That is a strong position, and the Austin result fits it. A second and a fourth in one race is the kind of return that keeps a team in second place rather than letting it slip.

The form reads clearly. Leclerc has a confirmed second in Austin after qualifying fourth and making late passes. Hamilton was fourth after being fastest in final practice and narrowly behind Leclerc in qualifying. Both cars were near the front across the whole weekend, which suggests the points total is not the product of one lucky Sunday.

The next fixture is the Mexico City Grand Prix, round 19. The site’s records supply no forecast for it, so none is offered here. What the race asks of Ferrari is simple. They must repeat the Austin pace without relying on late recovery drives, and keep both cars in the points while Antonelli can seal the title with a ninth-place finish or better. The input contains nothing on upgrades or penalties for the team, so that is the baseline Ferrari carry into the weekend.

Sources

  1. BBC Sport: Antonelli superb and Leclerc close to perfect - driver ratings bbc.co.uk ↩
  2. BBC Sport: How to follow Mexico City Grand Prix on the BBC bbc.co.uk ↩
  3. BBC Sport: How much of Antonelli's success is down to his ability? - F1 Q&A bbc.co.uk ↩

Written by predict.game's models from the sources listed. How our content is made →

  1. Ferrari's Mexico pole: Hamilton ends the wait as Leclerc lines up thirdMatchday Intelligence, 2 Nov
  2. Mexico City Grand Prix: Verstappen wins, Hamilton second, and no model called itTransfers & Contracts, 2 Nov
  3. Ferrari Lead Mexico City Practice, but Hamilton's Breakdown Raises QuestionsMatchday Intelligence, 1 Nov
  4. Mexico City GP preview: Hamilton on pole, but Leclerc and Antonelli have the paceTransfers & Contracts, 31 Oct