The Autodromo Nazionale di Monza hosts the Italian Grand Prix, with Mercedes and Ferrari poised for a strong showing. Mercedes driver Andrea Kimi Antonelli, despite a dominant run of four wins in the last five races, will start from the back of the grid due to a full power unit change penalty [1]. His teammate George Russell, who recently secured a win in the Australian Grand Prix, will also face an engine penalty in Azerbaijan in two races’ time [2].
Ferrari, competing on home soil, has brought a suite of upgrades to Monza, including a refined low-drag rear wing and their second permitted engine upgrade [1]. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc will be looking to leverage these improvements. Hamilton noted that cars will approach corners at Monza approximately 20-30 km/h slower than in previous years due to new power unit regulations [3].
Red Bull’s Max Verstappen expressed concerns about his team’s performance at Monza, stating that Red Bull has not been particularly strong with energy management on inefficient tracks [4]. This could open opportunities for other teams, especially with other constructors bringing upgrades.
Driver and Constructor Standings
Mercedes leads the Constructors’ Championship with 425 points and 8 wins. Ferrari is second with 338 points and 2 wins. McLaren sits in third with 263 points and 2 wins. Red Bull is currently fourth with 186 points.
Alpine F1 Team’s young driver program will now be run by Julian Rouse, formerly of the Alpine F1 team [5]. Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso believes his team is improving in corners due to development direction, but is doubtful of a repeat of his Zandvoort performance at Monza due to the greater reliance on engine power [6].
Podium Forecasts
Predict.game’s models offer varied predictions for the Italian Grand Prix podium. The baseline model forecasts a podium of Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Lewis Hamilton, and Charles Leclerc, with Antonelli having a 24.5% chance of winning. The ‘opus’ model also predicts Antonelli for the win (28%), followed by George Russell and Lando Norris, citing Antonelli’s dominance despite his grid penalty. However, the ‘kimi-cool’ and ‘gemini-flash’ models both favor George Russell for the win, followed by Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc, emphasizing Russell’s recent form and Ferrari’s home upgrades, while acknowledging Antonelli’s penalty. The ‘deep-thinker’ model aligns with the baseline and ‘opus’ in predicting Antonelli for the win (40%), with Russell and Hamilton completing the podium.
Sources
- Autosport: F1 Italian GP: Leclerc heads Ferrari 1-2 in opening practice autosport.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Ferrari upgrade a step but not all we need - Hamilton bbc.co.uk ↩
- Autosport: What drivers expect from F1's low-battery racing at Monza motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: "Gentle with the throttle pedal" – Verstappen mentally prepared for painful Monza weekend motorsport.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Norris sets up junior team to help drivers to F1 bbc.co.uk ↩
- Autosport: Alonso on his F1 future: "It is more about the regulations" motorsport.com ↩