Antonelli Leads the Charge at COTA
Andrea Kimi Antonelli will start the United States Grand Prix from pole position, setting the stage for a potentially decisive championship battle. The Mercedes driver needs to win the race, with teammate George Russell finishing lower than eighth and Lewis Hamilton below fourth, to secure the title [1]. Antonelli has demonstrated improved consistency and mental resilience this season [2], reflected in his strong practice and qualifying performances. He topped Practice 3 with a best lap of 95.015 seconds and secured pole with a 94.035 in Q3. His teammate, George Russell, will start in sixth, while Lewis Hamilton, who was fourth fastest in FP1 [3], qualified fifth. Mercedes has reverted both their cars to an upgraded specification introduced two races ago [4], a strategic move as both Antonelli and Russell are confirmed to take engine penalties when a new power unit is introduced [5].
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc, who set the fastest lap in FP1 [3] and topped Practice 2 and 3, will start fourth. Leclerc has signed a multi-year contract extension with Ferrari, reportedly until the end of 2029 [6]. His teammate, Lewis Hamilton, will join him at Ferrari in 2027 [6]. Ferrari’s team boss, Fred Vasseur, has received backing from both Hamilton and Leclerc [7].
Red Bull and McLaren Bring Upgrades
Max Verstappen of Red Bull qualified second, just 0.179 seconds behind Antonelli. Red Bull has brought an additional update to their new front wing for the United States Grand Prix [3], and both Verstappen and teammate Isack Hadjar will have the final major car upgrade package at their disposal [8]. Hadjar qualified an impressive third, showcasing the potential of the upgraded package. Red Bull has also identified improving the car’s behavior over bumps as a priority [9]. Verstappen recently renegotiated and extended his contract with Red Bull by two years [10].
McLaren drivers Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris qualified seventh and eighth, respectively. McLaren is bringing minor upgrades to the front of the car and small floor changes for this Grand Prix [11]. Norris has noted the Circuit of the Americas is very bumpy, causing discomfort [12]. Piastri retired from the Singapore sprint race after colliding with Norris [13], but is expected to race for McLaren [14].
Midfield Battles and Driver Movements
Alpine’s Pierre Gasly qualified 11th, with teammate Franco Colapinto in 14th. Alpine’s young driver programme is now run by Julian Rouse, formerly of the Alpine F1 team [15]. Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso, who will start 15th, has stated his decision to stay in F1 is more about the regulations than the car’s competitiveness [16]. His teammate, Lance Stroll, has extended his contract with Aston Martin for the long term [17]. Aston Martin acknowledges that expectations were too high heading into the Singapore race weekend [18].
Audi’s Nico Hülkenberg qualified 12th, with Gabriel Bortoleto in 13th. Freddie Slater, an Audi Formula 1 junior driver [19], will replace Hülkenberg in Free Practice 1 in Mexico and Bortoleto in Free Practice 1 in Brazil [20]. Haas drivers Oliver Bearman and Esteban Ocon qualified 16th and 17th, respectively. Ocon will leave Haas at the end of 2026, with Rafael Camara signing a multi-year deal to replace him [21]. Bearman is expected to line up alongside Camara in 2027 [21].
Podium Forecasts
The models are largely in agreement for the United States Grand Prix podium. The baseline, Opus, Gemini-Flash, and Deep-Thinker models all predict an Andrea Kimi Antonelli victory, followed by Max Verstappen in second, and Charles Leclerc in third. Antonelli’s pole position and strong practice pace are consistently cited as key factors. Verstappen’s consistent long-run pace and Red Bull’s upgrades are also highlighted. Leclerc’s session-leading times and Ferrari’s recent form support his podium contention.
GPT-Striker, however, offers a slightly different prediction, forecasting Antonelli for first, Verstappen for second, and Isack Hadjar for third. This model emphasizes Hadjar’s upgrades and strong qualifying performance as a reason for his potential podium finish. Antonelli’s win probabilities range from 27.7% (Opus) to 45% (Deep-Thinker), while Verstappen’s probabilities are between 23.8% (Opus) and 35% (Deep-Thinker). Leclerc’s win probabilities are between 11.1% (baseline) and 20% (Gemini-Flash), with Hadjar’s highest at 15% (GPT-Striker).
Sources
- BBC Sport: Antonelli to 'just have fun' as he aims for title bbc.co.uk ↩
- Autosport: How Antonelli will manage the pressure as F1 coronation looms autosport.com ↩
- Autosport: F1 United States GP: Leclerc beats Verstappen to top FP1 in upgraded Ferrari autosport.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Leclerc sets Austin practice pace from Verstappen bbc.co.uk ↩
- Autosport: Russell set to take F1 engine penalty after Mercedes introduces power unit upgrade motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Why it's now Bearman versus Camara for the next Ferrari vacancy motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Vasseur calls for Ferrari unity: Pointing fingers would be "big mistake" motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Red Bull won't deliver any more major F1 car upgrades in 2026 motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Red Bull identifies two "key focus" areas after Max Verstappen's promising start in Austin motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: What Verstappen knew about Red Bull’s big upgrade when he signed his new F1 deal motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Norris promises to make "better decisions" following fresh talks over Singapore GP clash motorsport.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Austin track bumps out of control - Verstappen bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Does Norris-Piastri crash show 'papaya rules' failing? - F1 Q&A bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: How to follow Italian Grand Prix on the BBC bbc.co.uk ↩
- BBC Sport: Norris sets up junior team to help drivers to F1 bbc.co.uk ↩
- Autosport: Alonso on his F1 future: "It is more about the regulations" motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Aston Martin retains Alonso and Stroll for F1 2027 motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: The unexpected issue Honda faced with upgraded F1 power unit motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Slater to graduate from F3 to F2 for 2027 motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Slater set for F1 practice debut with Audi in Mexico motorsport.com ↩
- Autosport: Camara to make F1 debut as Ocon's replacement at Haas in 2027 motorsport.com ↩