A cup exit that left questions
Chelsea’s midweek trip ended in disappointment. They lost to Liverpool on penalties in the Carabao Cup, a result [1] reports was shaped by Wesley Fofana. The defender conceded a penalty for handball during the match and then missed his own spot-kick in the shootout. It is the kind of night that tends to follow a player around, and the BBC notes that one Chelsea fan was left unsure about his future at the club.
There were selection talking points too. [2] reports that Estevao stayed on the touchline, warming up, while Xabi Alonso picked Emanuel Emegha ahead of him. Estevao has played only 172 minutes across eight appearances this season, six in the Premier League and two in the EFL Cup, so he is not yet a regular in Alonso’s plans. Pedro Neto’s good form is described as one of the main obstacles. Malo Gusto also suffered cramps during the match, which forced Chelsea into changes.
The injury list keeps growing
The bigger concern is the treatment room, particularly in defence. [3] reports that Alonso said Maxence Lacroix will not be ready before the international break and will be out for a few weeks. The BBC’s wider report suggests a serious hamstring problem that could keep him out until January. Jorrel Hato is injured and not yet back with the squad, and Aaron Anselmino is also out.
There was one piece of good news. Moisés Caicedo avoided injury despite concerns after the Liverpool game, which matters for a midfield that has to cover a stretched back line.
Up front, João Pedro is injured. The Guardian says he [4], and Chelsea failed to score in both. Another BBC piece on Fantasy Premier League treats him as injured too, but gives no timeline for a return. With so many absentees, Alonso’s options are narrower than the league position suggests.
Flying high, but for how long?
Chelsea are fifth with 13 points from eight matches, yet the underlying picture is less comfortable. The same BBC report notes that they have kept only one clean sheet in that run. The Guardian adds that they have conceded more than their expected goal level, the second-worst rate in the Premier League. Its analysis describes a hot finishing streak, low possession and an Opta expected points model that rates Chelsea below Manchester United.
Alonso’s side has also lacked settled foundations. He has used 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1 this season, neither for more than three consecutive league games, and Chelsea have started three different goalkeepers. That rotation can be a strength when the squad is healthy. With Lacroix, Hato and Anselmino out, it looks more like improvisation. The Guardian expects results to regress, and the defensive injuries make that easier to believe.
What it means
Chelsea’s place in the table is solid. They are fifth on 13 points from eight games, with four wins, one draw and three defeats, and a goal difference of +2 (17 scored, 15 conceded). The recent form is uneven: a 5-1 win over Bournemouth and a 2-0 win at Everton were followed by a 2-0 home defeat to Tottenham. Earlier, they lost 3-0 at Brentford and drew 2-2 with Hull. Good attacking days sit alongside games where the team simply did not score, which fits the finishing-driven story told above.
The next fixture is Manchester United at home on 31 October. The site’s forecast favours Chelsea at 52.0%, with the draw at 26.0% and a United win at 22.0%. The predicted score is 2-1. That reads as a modest edge, not a comfortable one, and the Opta view quoted by the Guardian is a reminder that United can be rated higher on underlying numbers.
The game asks whether Chelsea can protect a makeshift defence without João Pedro to lead the line. If Caicedo is fit and the attack scores as it did against Bournemouth and Everton, the forecast looks reasonable. If the Tottenham pattern returns, the margins get thin quickly.
Sources
- BBC Sport: 'I'm not sure where Fofana's Chelsea career goes from here' bbc.co.uk ↩
- Marca: El infierno azul de 'Messinho', la estrella 'olvidada' por Xabi Alonso que quiso jugar en el Madrid marca.com ↩
- BBC Sport: Fears Chelsea's Lacroix could be out until January bbc.co.uk ↩
- The Guardian: Chelsea’s fine finishing has them flying high – but how long can it last? theguardian.com ↩
